tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27784316.post7363407509374837378..comments2023-09-06T03:23:43.027-07:00Comments on I AM A FUTURES TRADER: Chris Johnstonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01542415946929766288noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27784316.post-32693412038839250652010-04-20T16:33:48.081-07:002010-04-20T16:33:48.081-07:00Good analysis on your part. The error I would have...Good analysis on your part. The error I would have made had that been my approach would have been looking back at times of stock market strife, metals have not always risen. They have at times fallen sharply. As a result lacking that consistent relationship, I would have not made that play.<br /><br />I congratulate you for having connected the dots correctly. I think the metals will fall sharply if stocks fall again, but again there is no consistent relationship over time between stocks and metals, so I will not base any long term decisions on it.<br /><br />Like I said at the end. Some people can do it well.Chris Johnstonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01542415946929766288noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27784316.post-69301472240497726512010-04-20T09:17:49.392-07:002010-04-20T09:17:49.392-07:00This third approach is the one that I used to make...This third approach is the one that I used to make my money over '05-'08. I came to the conclusion that we were moving into a depression, as household debt-to-GDP levels were way above what they were in '29 (and the behavioral analogs between then and now -- which I gleaned from reading 'Only Yesterday' and 'Since Yesterday' were shocking). Over the '29-'33 depression, there were two approaches that made money: long gold mining stocks and short the broad market.<br /><br />So, that is what I did: I was long gold mining stocks (via UNWPX and VGPMX) over '05-'06, then moved to shorting the S&P 500 over '07-'08 (via shorting SSO). Over the four year period, I quadrupled my money.<br /><br />Yes, I had some ugly drawdowns -- 20-25% -- but through ongoing analysis, I remained supremely confident of my read of the economy and where it, and the stock market, was headed.<br /><br />My long-term money, once again, is invested using this third approach: 2/3 gold and 1/3 silver bullion. I feel comfortable that there will be a return to gold and silver-backed currencies, and I want to own gold and silver (held in a private bank in Switzerland; the Swiss stood up to Nazi attempts at forced repatriation, and I feel comfortable that they will stand up to U.S. attempts at forced repatriation) when central governments come hat in hand to buy.<br /><br />Trying to make money in the short-term with my short-term timing/trading portfolio has been much, much harder for me (I essentially failed, losing 80% of my short-term portfolio last year). Standing fast, confident in my read of the economy, waiting for the market to catch up, served me poorly when trying to make short-term money.<br /><br />So, that is why I read your blog, Chris, to attempt to learn risk management and entry/exit timing. I am slowly learning, and thank you for your generous instruction.jgnoreply@blogger.com