Is it time to panic?

We are in freefall at the moment, so what to do next? As indicated on the chart, I just went long the S&P futures, am I nuts? Maybe, it is never easy to buy into declines like this, and also not always the correct thing to do. Why am I doing it?

First, my long term model is still in the long side only mode, so I am looking to buy short term weakness within that. If you look at the red line on the chart, specifically in the first sub-section, we are at a very low level. This is a proprietary indicator that measures advancing issues on the NYSE in a unique way. It has rarely been this low in recent years. Second, I mostly follow my systems with small amounts of discretion thrown in along the way. I have no way of knowing when an individual trade will win or lose, and when I thought I have known this in the past, I have usually been wrong. As a result, I rarely pass a trade due to my opinion about the outcome. It is true, that if this is in fact a trend change, this trade will lose.

From a short term basis, there is no reason to buy into days like this because it is clearly a news driven down trend day and these types of days can really get away quickly. The system that generated this trade is about a 10 day hold on average, and often the first few days go against the position. As hard as it is to watch this adverse move, it is typical of these types of trades.

I am constantly trying to find ways of filtering out bad trades like this one "might" be, and have never been able to find a conceptually correct way of doing so. As a result, I just take them as they come up and hope for the best over time. Ten of the last 11 in this system leading up to this trade have profited, so there is a good track record with it.

Satellite Internet Sucks

I simply have had such trouble getting consistent Internet connections, that it has made it very difficult to post regularly here. I will do my best to do a better job of it going forward. It has been all I could manage to place my trades much less do much else when the Internet cuts in and out randomly at the most inopportune times.

To the left is the weekly S&P Chart, and as you can see the world has not ended since my last commentary. I had stated that if that last small pullback was all we got, a good sized up move could be coming. We have seen that, and there really are no exit sirens blaring right now.

We are nearing the time of year when we can usually expect a decline to occur, so I am watching closely right here. However, as long as the commercials stay this heavily long, we should be ok. Today we got a big down intraday move, but they rallied it back most of the way by days end. We opened about 50 down in the Dow, and that is where we closed. Most of the reasons cited by the bears here for a down move are actually bullish indications, and they just do not understand them well enough to see it. High short interest is bullish, not bearish to name one of them.

I will keep close tabs on things, and may in fact bail out when the seasonal tendency kicks in just because of the large gains I have in the stocks I hold, over 20% as a whole just since April. However, you always want to let your profits run, so never take a full position off just for a dollar amount reason. Taking partial profits, if it is part of the plan is prudent. It is not prudent if you think "well I have made alot so I should get out" ... etc..