T BONDS

Here we have a market that I think is setup for a possible entry on the short side if we get a little bounce here.

We have broken the uptrend as evidenced by the green live on the left, and along with that we do have divergence in the oscillator at the bottom. We do have a very strong tendency for a rally to occur at this time of the year in this market. In fact it is one of the strongest seasonal tendencies out there. I have this marked with a red arrow in the second graph. However, seasonals at times can go awry, evidenced by this years stock market rally. It has completely ignored the seasonal tendency for a late summer decline.

So, this means that we need to be aware of them to look for possible opportunities, but not swear by them. I think a trade is best when it is also supported by seasonals, but if everything else is lined up and this is lacking, that does not stop me from making a trade.

There are some things that I look at that are not displayed here that dial this in a bit more for me, that should setup a possible sell entry with a day or two of a rally here. If we just sail upward from here for a week or so, it is likely my short term indicators will turn back up and invalidate the setup. As a result, look for a one to two day rally, then sell weakness if that takes place for an entry.