APRIL FOOLS

This chart above shows the buying of the opening of the first trading day of the month and exiting MOC that day in the ES. You can see that April is one of the best months to buy, and that is tomorrow. As much as the cyclical work I study shows a potential top in the next month or so, there is nothing I am looking at today that tells me we are in any jeopardy of a big decline yet. Ben is just moving this along nicely and giving it a little goose at the rare times it winds up down for the day coming into the noon hour. Regardless of the reason, we have one of the biggest bull markets in history going and that is really all that matters. The reasons as to why it may or may not be happening are really irrelevant.

We have a bull market and a seasonally strong day coming Monday, so we should be looking to the long side. Ironically we have still not moved up so much in the last couple of weeks to make the EURO chart forecast wrong. It certainly has not been as spot on as it was at the very least. I would be hesitant to put on any positions to hold right here, even though the trend is quite strong and short term we have some seasonal up bias. Look at the next chart. Even when you have markets being manipulated, at some point certain conditions still matter. Excessive complacency with nobody at all being worried even the least bit about a decline, generally means one is about to happen.

The VIX is at it's lowest level in years now and you can see 4 out of the last 5 times we were at these levels, we had good declines take place. In summary, the very short term still looks bullish meaning Monday, and there are not any ominous chart patterns yet. However, the amount this market is being stretched has resulted in way too much bullishness in general. There will at some point be a decline, and the FED will try and stop it but won't be able to and will be forced to just let it happen after throwing a few hundred million at it and failing to stop it. If you do the math on how much they have to spend to reverse a 100 point decline, it is mind boggling. There are other places on the web that I am sure you can read about those calculations. Now is a time to stay long but tighten stops.

The COT report did not show any additional bullish buying by the commercials in Gold or Silver, but Gold in particular still looks like a buy in here to me somewhere. I am also still looking at the long side in Bonds this week, hoping something will develop there. I have also been trading the short side of the energies except RB the last couple of weeks looking for something to give there. Whether they can or not without the help of stock indexes weakening is anybody's guess.

Good Trading to you all this week