BOND UPDATE

We have had a substantial move down in the bond market this week. As you can see, we have broken through the 2.0 standard deviation bands (the blue lines). There is really no magic to these lines, other than they tell us when a short term move has traveled more than a normal amount. I have covered this in past newsletters.

However, it is still a nice visual aid to help with a larger picture perspective on things. I suppose the more positive than expected economic news is the explanation for this move, but I could care less. You could also argue that the rise in gold, was the primary cause.

With the primary seasonal tendency for a decline at this time of the year, combined with the well defined downtrend in prices, we should be looking to sell rallies against the trend. Buying oversold conditions for reversions is another strategy that can be employed, but it is not for the faint of heart. My short term system will do that in the trading service, but I do not suggest that the average person do this. Staying in sync with the primary trend of the markets, is where most of the money is made.

BONDS

Here is a weekly chart of Treasury Bonds. As you can see we have had a decent sized decline recently, right after the PIMCO bullish comments were made. At this point we are still technically in an uptrend, but a very choppy one that is difficult to trade. Trading retracements this deep with trend trading techniques, makes for sleepless nights.

We are still holding above support (marked by the red horizontal line). The RSI is reading 49.90 with is neutral. Due to the seasonal down tendency during the first half of the year, I expect this market to head lower overall by mid year, breaking this support level. If this happens, that would mean higher interest rates. It does seem at the moment that the Fed is determined to not lower rates, so this kind of makes sense. However, be clear, that I do not get tied up in "THE STORY." Those are just observations only.

I look at fundamental conditions and mechanical measurements of things to tell me where we are. I only mentioned that because it ties in what appears to be a broader economic situation, with the mechanical conclusion I spelled out initially.

STOCKS

We are getting close to a bigger picture sell signal in the stock market. I have a proprietary indicator that is fundamenally based, that has been declining, and is close to going negative. The commercials are also heavily in the sell territory as you can see.

When these two things combine at the same time, moves lasting longer durations, and also of larger magnitudes begin. You can see that it triggerred the sell signal in May that I pointed out the day before it happened. It also indicated the buy in July/August.

The way that it triggers makes it likely that the end of next week would be the soonest it could give the final confirmation of a sell. It may not, but it is certainly something to be on the lookout for. We also have to watch the commercials to be sure they are still short if the Magic Potion indicator crosses into the red. If the commercial buying picks up it would nullify the short signal.

DYKSTRA SAYS BUY................

Well I guess we should buy, Lenny Dykstra says so. I heard on CNBC yesterday that former major leaguer Lenny Dykstra is a fund manager and is buying Oil stocks right now. I heard the interview, and he sure sounds like he has no business running a fund. This has bad ending written all over it. Maybe I will find a way to short him!

Buying into these huge declines can at times be rewarding, but it is catching the falling dagger. I had my head handed to me more than enough times in my early days, to not try this any more. I have no idea where the bottom is, but I will throw this out there: since we rose on no fundamentals, why can't we decline the same amount, due to the same lack of fundamentals?

The hard demand numbers never justified the exponential rise and now the fraud in gasoline pricing is becoming clear. Gas prices are not dropping, I wonder why? The fact of the matter is that these speculative price moves that we often see in Oil, Metals, Real Estate, are the result of basic human emotions acting collectively. As a result, it is impossible to measure when these momentum driven price moves, like this one downward, will run out of steam.

Stick with the trend, short the rallies and do not be a hero catching the knife.

CRUDE OIL

Last week I posted a chart of Crude Oil saying that it was setting up as a sell, but might just roll over. This is what happened. When you are in a strong trending market, surprises generally happen in the direction of the trend.

It is impossible to determine exact price targets. For now the trend is down, so trading should be done on the shortside on reactions upward against the trend.

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Do we have a stock drop coming to welcome in the New Year? I think we do for several reasons. First, bonds have weakened considerably in the last 30 days. Second, there has been a seasonal tendency for a decline in January the last 5 years or so. Third, the VIX continues to be at a very low level.

The blue line on the chart represents Bonds, and you can see the downward move that has taken place. I have drawn in the wedge formation in red, which does not mean much. All this shows us is that recently, prices have been contained in a narrowing range. There is no magic to these lines at all contrary to what many people have written about them. However, they do graphically depict the support area short term in prices.

Now that the year end bonus game for fund managers is over, there is no reason to just blindly support any dip with buy programs in the futures.

As a result, if we do get a break down, it will not likely get the immediate snap back that we saw during the 4th quarter. Sorry for the poor formatting in terms of paragraph breaks and spacing, the new version of blogger is not letting me edit this post for some reason.

CRUDE OIL

Here is a weekly chart of Crude Oil. It is clear that we are in a strong down ward trend. The commercials got long during the decline, which is more than likely just normal hedging operations, but has resulted in a small rally against the trend.

If there were to be a move up toward the 67 area and an accompanying shift to the short side with the commercials, this would be a very nice short sale setup. It may not move up that far, but choosing ones spots carefully is a very important component of a successful trading strategy.

Sometimes moves are missed by waiting for things to line up properly. There are fellow traders of mine that have the mental makeup to trade at a very low win to loss ratio, knowing the big wins will overcome all the small losses. These folks just fire away at marginal opportunities all day long, not being able to afford to miss any move that comes along. This is a very dangerous game to play. I prefer to pick and choose my spots, and am willing to see moves go by if they are not setup properly.

S&P 500

Will this ever end? It is never wise to fight a trend like this, and I have not been doing it. We do have a little divergence happening now with weak bonds, market by the down trending red line. This is not enough yet to be a big problem, but may result in itleast a buyable pullback soon.

This market has carried on for a very long time without even a 10% pullback, which is rare. With the commercials now short, it is not advisable to put on any new long term long positions here. Still, shorting this market is still very risky. The insiders have a lot at stake in keeping this move intact through the end of the year.

I will be watching the pullback closely in January to see if it has more dire hints, than just a pause to move higher again. If the commercials do not get long during that pullback, neither will I.

GOLD

Anyone who has either read this blog or is a client of mine, knows that I am not in agreement with the long term GOLD to the moon scenario. However, I trade shorter term than that anyway, so here is what we see as of today.

We have clearly broken the small uptrend off the lows from under $600. The declining line now indicates what the trend is, and it is down. RSI is also under 50, confirming this downward trend.

What to do next? Wait for a 3 or 4 bar retracement up against the downtrend to go short. If the market were to hold here and rocket upward changing the trend back to up, then buy the pullbacks. For now, however, it is short the upward flags against the downtrend.

If you take a broader view, we are really in a sideways market in general for the last several months here. As a result, you can always fade the range when we get to one side of it. We are basically in the middle now, in a short term down trend.

On the 9th I posted a thread about broadening formations drawn in here to the left. I mentioned that these patterns are very "noisy." What this means is that they are not very accurate % wise, but do create big wins when they are correct.

Here we have a typical scenario with them, the first trade, marked with a small red line, would have been a loss. How did I know not to take this trade?

There are a few reasons. First and foremost, the exact pattern at hand within the broadening pattern was not near accurate enough to make my system for the S&P. Second, the bond market has been very strong. Third, it is unlikely that the insiders pushing this rally are going to let much of it get away before year end bonus time. As traders we have to think about what we are doing at times, and if something flies in the face of several reasons why it should not be done that have a fundamental basis, that trades needs to be passed on.

This market "may" crack at some point, but it is still on firm ground, and anyone's guess as to when this rally will stop. The commercials are short now, so that tells us a pullback is probably coming in January. There has also been a seasonal tendency in recent years for declines in January.

I would suggest studying broadening patterns and coming up with your own ways of using them. This is an ongoing project for me. If I ever crack the code on how to use this well, I can assure you I will keep it to myself!!!!!!!!!!!! For now, it is a discretionary tool.

Bonds

The bond market is experiencing a decline here for the first time in awhile. Every time the PIMCO guys make a bullish comment, in the short term this seems to happen. Maybe it is just a coincidence, or maybe there are a few wise guys who trade size that fade them?

The uptrend is still intact, but we would not want to see alot more of this type of action or it may be in jeopardy. There is no magic to this, we just have to buy retracements in sync with the underlying trend until it changes. I have not gotten any buy signals in my short term trading system on this pullback so far.

It is important to note, that the commercials have gotten short in the S&P, so the bond market holding it's uptrend becomes very important. If it were to break it, the stock rally would be in jeopardy.

S&P 500

Here is a chart that displays the short term entry point, for anyone trading the broadening pattern in the S&P 500 I mentioned this past week. Once the pattern is formed, you short at the first break of a prior days low, with a stop above the high.

This is a noisy pattern, but the wins when they come are often very big. The win/loss percentage is low on this pattern, probably about 50%. When they occur at an extreme like this, in theory they should be a little more reliable, but I am not sure if that is true or not. I have not as yet been able to program this pattern, to fully test it. This is due to the almost countless variations that could be in place, that would qualify for the setup. It is much easier to visually identify it.

In any event, you will often be fighting big trends when entering these trades. Just study them on your own to see if they are of any use to you. They can be traded on all time frames, from a 5 minute chart up.

GOLD UPDATE

For those of you who are long the gold market, the inevitable pullback is happening. I have marked two possible stop placement areas with horizontal red lines. If you recall, I had recommended taking partial profits on the long previously due to the overbought condition in relation to the dollar. This is marked by a horitzontal red lone in the third window.

The first red line would be the most aggressive stop point. This represents the most recent pivot point. The other red line represents, the pivot point prior to the recent one.

Really strong trends, do not take out these pivot points, so this one does not look so good right here. We do not always follow the textbook with market moves, which is why taking partial profits helps you make money on a trade like this that did not work out all that well. It rose more than $20 from the entry point, which is $2000/contract. You never want to let a profit that big become a loss.

Megaphone

This is the S&P 500 as of the close of today. I have drawn in containment lines that resemble a megaphone or broadening type of pattern. There are certain ways of trading these types of patterns that are profitable.

I have drawn in a s below the horizontal red line which represents a possible short entry for Tuesday. This is just below todays low. If this low were to be taken on Tuesday, it would represent a false breakout to new highs today.

This is a discretionary pattern that is hit and miss, but if you go back and look at March of 2000 in the NAZ, you will see this pattern right at the highs. I have traded this pattern on all time frames and had some big hits, and also periods of losses. I point this out to beginners just as a field of study. I also continue to study this to see if there is any way of making it mechanical. I have not as yet found a way of doing that.

As a result, this is just a feel type of pattern. There is no doubt that there is major manipulation going on holding this market up this high, so we are really fighting the house shorting this market. However, this pattern does seem to conveniently show up at major turning points often. It bears watching.

Correction?

We finally got what appears to be the first leg of a correction. Is this the beginning of something more or not?

So far it is tough to tell. There has been some heavy insider selling going on toward the end of this up move, which could spell some trouble. However, in the absence of that, this appears to just be the beginning of a long overdue correction. Notice how strong the bond market is underneath, which is what we want to buy into a decline.

We have broken the most aggressive uptrend line so far, and are sitting on the second most aggressive trend line. This is to be expected. Upmoves that just go on and on without meaningful retracements leave themselves vulnerable to these quick air pocket type of declines. Now it is time to start paying attention to see if this decline is an ordinary one or something to be more concerned about. So far, no alarms are going off but stay tuned.

GOLD

As a follow up to the Nov 17th post, here is the updated GOLD chart. By now traders should be long this market if they played the flag break in the area of where the b is on the chart. I have marked with horizontal red lines, two possible place for stops to be placed.

Partial profits should be taken at this point due to the gap up open. Once the profit equals the risk, it is prudent to take half of the position off and trail a stop on the balance. This gives a chance for a home run on a portion of the trade, but locks in a profit in the event of a reversal.

As you can see from the third chart down, GOLD is not undervalued relative to the dollar here, so an explosive upmove, although possible, is not highly likely. However, the trend is up, and you are long, so stay with the trend and see where it takes you. I would suggest moving the stop up under pivot points that form along the way.

Anyone who does not know what pivots are, shoot me an email.

S&P 500

I exited my short trade on the gap down opening this morning for a small profit. Although disappointing because this signal is normally a big winner, a win is a win.

It is hard to have much expectation of large wins when trading against an uptrend of this magnitude. Even though we know a sharp pullback is coming at some point, timing it is another story.

Month end biases are in general upward so it seems unlikely any drop will occur prior to December, if it even occurs then. Nonetheless, if I get any more sells from my trading system, I will take them and see how they play out.

Here is an update S&P 500 Weekly chart

We are working on a 5th weekly close above the 2.0 standard deviation band, hence a tremendously extended market. One development that bears watching is the commercials. They are moving toward that short side of this market.

The purple line is the bond market, which remains strong. When we get into a running market like this with virtually no pullbacks, it is very dangerous to step in front of it. A reversion at the very least will occur, but timing it is impossible. Some traders I know will just probe over and over fighting trends like this until they hit the number. They do not mind taking alot of small losses as long as they ultimately get the big win.

I do not subscribe to this theory. I do have a short trade on right now, but it is very short term, and generated by my system. This in no way means that I am calling for a major top yet. Pullbacks are still buys in this market.

Here is what could change that. First, a break down in bonds, and second, a heavy short position by the commercials.

S&P 500

The big upmove continues, but we have possible flies in the ointment for the first time in quite awhile. You can see the trades I have made in this market recently, which have been few in number. Today's short entry is the first short trade in the last 40 days or so.

Notice the heavy progo divergence in the 3rd panel at the bottom. Also, the vix, in purple on the top chart has really been trending downward sharply. This warns of complacency in the marketplace. Short term timing with the VIX is difficult, but it does support the other potential problems with this rally.

Make no mistake, this uptrend is very powerful, and I do not expect to see a sharp drop. However, at some point we should see a sharp short term retracement to "shake the tree" a little bit. I have no idea if it comes from right here or not, but I am short as I write this in a short term trade.

GOLD BUGS ALERT

For all of you gold bugs, we are getting the pullback against the trend that is setting up a long entry opportunity. You can either wait for the pullback to get to the lowest low of the last 10 days and just buy with a pre-designated stop, or buy the breakout of the flag.

I prefer buying the weakness, but that is just me. Sometimes you miss trades by waiting for that weakness that never develops.