GOOD AS GOLD

Gold and Silver continue to climb and at this moment there is no strong reason to be shorting Gold, Silver is weaker and is a tad different.

Notice on this chart that one momentum oscillator is diverging and one is not. This is typical in trend moves, oscillators constantly telling you to fade the trend. They are merely tools and need to be used selectively. The 930 - 937 area is a significant resistance zone that if cleared could have this market really off and running.

I have to admit I am rooting against this market due to the ridiculous stream of people telling you on the radio that you have to put your money into GOLD. They cannot find a single world event that in their opinion will lead to anything other than a rapid rise in GOLD. It is no small coincidence that these same people happen to sell gold coins. However, they have been right recently.

British Pound

This chart image is fuzzy, sorry. It is a Daily chart of the Pound. You can see we are in a downtrend with a little bounce happening. A rally up to the 1.4500 area should represent a good short sale opportunity here. I have some propietary indicators not shown, that are lagging this bounce showing underlying weakness not reflected in the price. As a result this market appears due for another drop if we rally another 300 points or so first.

BONDS

My post on bonds was very timely as you can see what happened after my "Sellin Time" comments on this market. We are following the seasonal pattern to a T right now. We are into Weekly support at this point so it would not be a surprise to see a rally here. Some oscillators are diverging at this low so this is a possible long entry area. Bigger picture I think we go down but a bounce should happen in this area give or take a smidge.

GOLD

Instead of me bragging about how great I am as in the last post, in this market although I have traded it profitably, my views of where it was going have been lousy. The red S followed by the dotted line down show the last trade I made which was a short with a nice profitable exit which is the bottom line. However, I have been expecting lower prices in this market and we have not gotten them.

The Weekly chart still shows lower highs so until that is broken we are in a downtrend, but a very choppy one that is hard to trade. There is not alot of commercial selling going on yet so that is one bearish factor that is not in place. If we look at the whole metals sector however, there is an overall bearish position by the commercials.

Ideally for me here I want a push up that serves up a false breakout that reverses down to get short or I will just sit and wait for this to clear up somewhat. There are always opportunities elsewhere. I want to shoot fish in a barrel not in the ocean, and this market is just sloppy right now.

Strong Dollar



Indicated on the chart to the left was my call for a rally in this market, I happened to get the low exactly which I was not trying to do, just lucky. However, I know there is a longer term upcycle in this market that should last several years, and we were in an uptrend that had a pullback, so it was not really that lucky.



This is where actually being a trader vs an economist or some big picture theorist trying to sell you Gold coins on the radio comes in handy. I cannot afford to have some macro economic view that may or may not be correct, I need to be able to determine when and where the moves are going to occur, so I can position real money in the markets and benefit from it. This is a prime example of watching what is actually happening and getting past being hung up on what should happen. The fact of the matter is that the Yen and the dollar have become the flight to quality vehicles in this stock market wipeout, so why would anyone believe that stocks and the dollar will decline together? That is not what is happening, they are moving inversely from one another. Until that changes don't make investment decisions based on a dollar decline if you also think stocks will decline, they are moving in opposite directions.

Today we are having a huge breakout to the upside in this market not shown on this chart, further extending this rally.

SELLIN' TIME



This is a follow up to the post I had on 30 Yr Bonds. We have gotten this rally up I had indicated I thought would take place. If you notice the oscillator at the bottom is severely lagging this price action, a bearish indication. However, even without that we have had the bounce that has set up this short opportunity. It also coincides almost perfectly with the seasonal pattern. As a result it is time to look for whatever entry patterns you might use to get into this trade.



I will not disclose all of my proprietary entry patterns in this venue, but I will say that I have not shorted this yet, but will be looking depending on how today closes, for a short entry tomorrow. I do not believe in just entering on strength when looking to sell so most of my entries require some short term move in the direction I am looking to enter, but the patterns vary depending on the situation. The stock market crash that is happening right now is supporting this market for the time being but if we got one day of stable stock prices that could quickly change.

How do you like me now?

Obviously my post on the Stock Market was pretty timely. I did say to wait for a break which came the next day indicated by the yellow line at the top and confirmed by almost any oscillator one could have looked at.

I have maintained all along that we are nowhere near done on this decline overall and there is certainly nothing here that indicates anything different to me. I hate having that position because it is the common view unfortunately, but it is what I study tells me.

I see no reason to buy this index or stocks at this juncture even though we are now clearly short term oversold.

WHAT THE BUCK?

Here is a weekly chart of the US Dollar Index. It is clear the uptrend that we have been in and also equally clear why I have been bullish on this market. Notice the blue line indicating the commercials buying the market during the recent pullback in price. This is exactly what we want to see the go long a market.

There are alot of geniuses out there citing one reason after another as to why the dollar is going to take a mighty fall. They may be right, but for trading purposes all that hyperbole is worthless. It comes down to having a way of knowing what your signals are and tuning out the noise. This was a buy signal at the recent low, and I was outspoken about this in many forums including the piggington blog where I post occasionally. This chart shows why. At times I may trade short term against these types of setups, but big picture, these are what you want for large moves in the markets.

First off, Joshua thanks for the nice comments!

Today I have a daily chart of 30 Year Bonds displayed. The historic upward move is clear to see, just for some perspective, 112 to 142 is $30k per futures contract in a market where in the past a good trade was $2k per contract or thereabouts.

We have had a sharp break down from an odd flat ledge at the top. If we couple this with the strong seasonal bearish tendency in January, we should be looking for a rally as indicated by the arrow to setup a shorting opportunity. I do not know if we will get it but I think we will. As far as translating this into actual borrowing rates, that is a waste of time. There has never been the degree of disconnect between Mortgage rates and the underlying longer term bond yields than there is right now. There is so much gamemanship going on with banks pricing in outrageous margins on loans, which I suppose they justify with an anticipated increased default rate. Mortgages should be 4% right now or less based on the underlying.

Following up on yesterdays commentary, the rally has continued. One of the things I have learned the hard way over the years is not to fight trends. The short term trend is decidedly up so even though there are reasons to look for a short sale, until we get some type of breakdown I am staying out of the way of this.

Some of the shorter term timing things I use have already failed to pick this top and we are working on 7 consecutive up days in the SP 500 pit contract. Contrary to popular belief that does not indicate a good short sale entry. We are having extended bounces in most markets right here, energy, grains, currencies, softs, metals. I think most of these are shorting opportunities the challenge is timing them properly.

I have been away for a long time working on several different things. With all that is happening I thought it might be a good time to resurrect this blog.

As we head into 2009 this is how things look in the S&P 500 Index. The most important thing to note is how the commercials in the bottom graph have been on the short side of this market for quite some time. This has been typical during long bear markets in this Index. There is no reason to look for big rallies as long as this condition exists. If I had displayed the other indexes, they are much more bearish with the commercials than this chart shows with the SP 500. What this means is that rallies are shorting opportunities. January has had a recent tendency to have early upward moves which started Friday. The Vix is indicating low relative levels now which is bearish, so this rally on a short term basis could rollover at any time. I would suggest using whatever short term timing techniques you use individually to time shorting this market, it is time to be looking.

I will post some things on other markets soon. I am looking to short Gold on rallies this month, it is not setup quite right yet. Also, although a short term sell is setting up in the Dollar, longer term I am bullish on the Dollar going forward.

GETTING CLOSE

I have not posted here in awhile for a few reasons. First and most important lack of feedback. I have stated often here that I would prefer comments vs emails to encourage discussion. Since that has not happened I do not feel compelled to tackle the technical challenges of making these entries. Satellite internet and it's slow speed make this very difficult.

Secondly, in this day and age where so many people read one article from someone they don't know, and then they are the expert on every subject on earth. I am seriously contemplating retreating back away from the public and just trading like I always have. At times it is just not worth the stupid comments that are made towards you. The most recent was the accusation of me getting killed because I am a long term investor. An average hold time in trades of less than 2 days and I am a long term investor being killed by this decline? Just read the last post and several before if you view me as that.

Now with all that aside, and referencing my last post where I thought the low would come in March, we can see that a potential low is in fact setting up here. The strong seasonal tendency for the decennial pattern to have March Lows, combined with the commercials stepping up their buying here, and interest rates tanking, is the perfect storm. This is setting up very nicely for a major rally. We will see how we look at month's end which is the ideal cycle spot, but it is sure looking good right now.

One more dip would be ideal, but we do not always get what we want. FYI, this particular setup is actually a buy and hold for about 6 months when it goes unlike most of what I do.

Without having posted anything for awhile, there is some catching up to do.

First, the year end rally at the end of 2007 did not materialize which led me to exit the long side on the last trading day of 07. I felt that the weakness during that very strong seasonal period was a warning of things to come. There are times when you have to make judgements regardless of what your systems are telling you.

As we are now in free fall, with the commercials heavily short, and in a seasonal down time period, is there any reason to look at buying this dip? As I type this the globex S&P session is down a staggering 52 points during this holiday. Whether or not this is a buy is up to an individuals trading or investing view. As an investor, stocks are clearly on sale here being undervalued by a number of measures, in particular, vs bond yields. It is at these times that you simply must put money to work, but also not to expect immediate gains. Investing and trading are two different approaches. As I have stated all along, the end of the first quarter is where I was looking for a low to be formed, so we are a ways from that as traders but not as investors.

From a short term trading perspective, the market is severely oversold and these types of declines have to be bought into, but timing them is difficult. First, your stops need to be much wider than normal to adjust to the volatility, and second, your size needs to be smaller for the same reason. I do not look to make a killing during these periods because that is how you get blown out. I want my risk to be the same during all market periods for consistency. That means trading smaller size with wider stops.

If the market does gap down to the degree that globex is indicating on Tuesdays action, that is an opening so extreme that it is a buy in my view for a short term trade. It is completely counter trend, but it would represent a several standard deviation move, that statistically is probable to reverse. However, overall I think we will trade down for the next week or two, then find a meaningful short term low, work into a more significant one in March, then head upward into the end of summer.

Going Nowhere



If you look at the bigger picture here in the S&P 500, we are essentially just trading sideways in a trading range. You can see the commercials have shifted to the short side of the market on a relative basis. However, if you look at the green line drawn across horizontally, they are still at a high level compared to where they have been over the last several years. Short term, they are at lower levels compared to 6 months ago.



I have researched the number of times that the WillVal indicator with these parameters has gone into an oversold condition as it was recently, with the market moving sideways in an uptrend, and there is not one single instance of a large decline that followed.



I also researched how often the market declined when the commercials were in this type of position in December, and there were no instances of a decline in the last week of the year when this happened. What this means is simply that the seasonal year end bias has been stronger than many of the other fundamentals at this time of the year.



As a result, I am holding my longs into the first week of January, where I will lighten up or completely exit. I do think we will have a January short term top, possibly the first week. I am looking for a March re-entry, for a big rally up from there. Oh wait, I read on another blog the other day that we all should "be very scared." I love that type of thing because that is just another person for us to take money from, the more the merrier especially during the holiday season!

COME TO PAPPA

The year end rally is solidly underway and I would like to point out something here. Notice how the market is pretty short term overbought here. Even the bottom indicator, which is inverse to the others, with low readings being sell signals, is pegged at the sell point.

One of the most painful things to learn about trading is that overbought can get more overbought, with the reverse being true for oversold conditions. I have found that once an indicator gets into these zones, if the reversal does not occur immediately, the move generally continues. As a result, prolonged readings of overbought and oversold need to be ignored.

Eventually a correction will occur once this condition is established, but I have never found anything that is a stalwart indicator to tell me when this will happen. If I ever do I can promise that I will keep it to myself! For now just ride your longs for the year end markup.

MAKE UP YOUR MIND





Cnbc reported as we were approaching $100 per barrel in Oil, that the fundamentals were strong and therefore we should continue upward. Some guests called for $150!

Now this morning they are reporting that the fundamentals are weak therefore prices should continue lower. PLEASE ignore these morons! They have some very qualified traders they interview, and paying attention to them might help you, but the commentators themselves just have no clue. It is shocking to me that these people can be in the pits, and talk to top traders daily, yet have absolutely no idea what is going on. What the hell are they doing down there every day.

My favorite one is the gal in the energy pits, I would wager my Saint Bernards could out trade here! How in the world could the fundamentals change this dramatically in two weeks? The answer is they haven't. They never supported that momentum driven move above $99. You can see the commercials did move up their long positions compared to a few months ago, but did reduce them over the last couple of weeks. They have tailored off somewhat here below a level that justifies long positions. However, if we were to get an increase there during this decline, we would have a very good buy signal.

We can only hope that knucklehead who reports on this market will be bearish at the time a buy signal shows up. That would guarantee a win.

Going back a couple of days you can see where I had stated that I thought there was a high probability of a short term low being formed. Obviously now that we are 600 points higher on the Dow, that call was correct.

I went "ALL IN" at the close of Monday in most of my accounts. One in particular is a retirement account that does not like market timing. I can't wait for the conversation scolding me for this move. It was "lucky" to have bought the low close, but sometimes you get lucky when you know what to look at.

It is too early to tell if this will be a major low, but what appears to be happening is that what began as short covering is picking up some new buying which could propel this sharply upward. That is conjecture, but this is the time of the year in general when you want to be long stocks to take advantage of the seasonal bias to the long side. The bottom line is that lower rates are good for stocks, and that is the environment we have. As a result, when you get dips during low rate periods, you need to be looking at buying stocks.

What is this mess?

I realize that this chart has a ton of clutter on it. Rarely a day goes by that I do not have another idea for finding the Grail for timing short term lows. Alas, none of the ideas ever pan out as anything other than another tool. I have several things displayed here which are all telling us the same thing, there is a good probability that a short term low is being formed here.

Notice the very large difference between new lows and new highs. This is extended to an extreme level, similar to what has often been the case at major lows in the past. The Advances vs Declines is also at a very low level. If we couple this with the seasonal tendency for a low point, we have the makings of a possible starting point for a good move upward. The pundits would have us believe these readings are very bearish and indicate further weakness and perhaps a crash. I like to fade the market at these times. Not every trade will be a win, but the majority of them will be in these instances. We are already long the S&P from Fridays open, so we have already placed our bets on this.

Here is the summary of the Gold trade we just exited in the trading service. The initial entry, and an add on entry above it are marked with horizontal red lines and an S for each of them. Our exit was a bit lucky in that we exited on a limit right before the market zoomed up today. The add on entry was not in the service, that was something I did in my own trading only. Was this luck?



Keep in mind that although the fundamentals the way I look at them are bearish, but we had reached a short term oversold area, in what is still a long term uptrend, so it was prudent to take some profits. It may not look like much due to the scaling of this chart, but this was a profit of $3270/contract on the initial, and $4270 on the add on, so a substantial gain overall.



The big picture plan here is to wait for a pullback and re-enter the short side if the fundamentals are still bearish at the time it occurs, then try and ride down what could be a very big move. It is possible that pullback does not occur, but based on the relative valuation compared to the dollar at the moment, I think it will.

Is this the low?



That is impossible to know. As I had stated previously, I was legging into the stocks I wanted to own on this dip, and bought fully into 2 of the 5 yesterday when they were down on the session. Both exploded upwards, and would have been incredible day trades. However, I plan on holding these longs for awhile.



I had been of the opinion that had we had one more significant down day, this could have been the low, as many of the oversold indicators were about one day away from being in a perfect zone for buying. The market rarely accomodates our plans perfectly, which is both the beauty and the frustration of trading.



As you can see on this chart, the S&P short term timing system has been on a fantastic run, getting us long very early yesterday and enabling us to cash in on the big up day. Since those signals are also now on my trading service, they will not be posted live here.



I do think it is too early to call this the low and celebrate, but I do have a substantial long side position that I will look to lighten up into years end if we rally, and add it back on during what I think might be a first quarter decline. The cycles still favor a December low point, and the announcements this am that the worst of the subprime fallouts are behind us, seem difficult to believe. All it will take is another scare there, and poof, 500 points can come off the Dow instantly.