IF THIS SURPRISES YOU WAKE UP

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6560-13

I got off this subject because I was tired of talking about it and felt I had driven the point home. It is amazing to me when I talk to people the lack of concern over another PFG. I don't consider MF to be the same since most segregated holders are going to wind up with all of their money back. There is no chance of that happening with PFG, zero.

Readers know my thoughts on this firm. They screwed me so many times on fills then I got Peggy in the Ukraine from the Mastercard commercials every time I called customer service, so I vowed never to do business with them again. When I saw this article about them it was no surprise to me. It was not that I expected it to be them, I did not. What I am 100% sure of is that FCM's mishandle segregated money every single day still. The government actions have done nothing at all to prevent any more disasters. What they have done is make it so the thefts will be discovered sooner. The outcomes won't change at all. The money will still be gone and what is left will be paid to attorney's and or tied up in court for years. What will happen is that you will know you have been hosed much faster whatever comfort that provides.

The moral of the story is split up your money. FCM's are still screwing around and more PFG's are coming. You don't want to be in the position I was where the majority of your trading capital was in one place. If it poofs you poof. There are poofs coming during the next turn down we have. I say this with 100% certainty. Do your homework and split up your money. I don't know it this firm has any issues or not but obviously with at one point $400M not being accounted for, there are some problems going on. I know in my world if the word segregated comes up in any way with an FCM in any negative way I am gone the next day period. At the very least I would take out half my money immediately and ask questions later.

I am not seeing any setups I am in love with here. Gold I think is looking like it might be worth a shot on the short side here and ironically so is the DX. This is odd because all the experts tells us they move opposite which of course is not always true just like most of what they tell us. Fact checkers are not among their peer groups. The DX is also moving separately from it's recent relationship with the stock market. I think the reason for that is that the FED is now just focused almost exclusively on the ES.

I noticed in the court docket today that a ton of people are selling their claims in the PFG case to bad debt buyers. This is probably not a bad idea due to the continued delays and the prospect for another distribution this year being very bleak. Whether it is worth it to wait for a whole additional year for only another 10% is a good question. It probably isn't. I have already written off the loss on my taxes so I am going on the assumption that nothing more is coming. It does however seem likely that we will get to 50% at some point in the next couple of years.

My parting thought is I wish someone would step on that little shrimp over in Korea who is running his mouth. Fonzie said it best in Happy Days, at some point you have to hit somebody. Until you do you got no reputation.

I have to get cracking on my web site so cutting it short tonight. Hopefully some things are going to set up the way I like them soon. The bond system has also only made 1 trade this month so far, a win, so things have been quiet this last week. Sorry no charts tonight I think I have chartitis!

Good Trading

STOCK SELL SIGNAL STILL LURKING

Here are the ES and RUSSELL charts with the ADX on them. I hope readers of the newsletter have spotted the pattern that is here and also have spotted the difference between the two and which one is the better setup. If you are a client and are not sure please email me. If you are not sorry, it is not fair to them to tell everyone just dropping in about this. For those who are not I would suggest studying the ADX it can be a very valuable tool. The purpose of the Trading School section is to show people how we trade and the tools we use to do it, that is why we have covered this in a few different editions.

You can also see here that the accumulation indicator is also showing a different situation in each of these markets. I want to stress these are setups not entry patterns at this point. As I pointed out in Natural Gas the other day. That was a sell setup not a sell entry. For those who thought I was a moron when the market took off that next day I said right in the article it was not a rush in guns a blazin sell, it was a setup. It still is and is now looking like something could come along there in a few days. This is how setups are they are situations where my attention is now drawn to these markets looking for shorter term entry patterns to develop.

How you enter the trades is another matter. There was a comment made in one of the posts about specific price levels for the Russell on a bounce. I have no idea about those, I do not use Fibonacci and have made a video about why that will be in the new web site. I focus more on short term pattern setups, then price confirmations of them via price movement in the direction I am looking to drag me into trades. I don't represent that it is the perfect way to trade, I represent it is how I do it. There are pluses and minuses to every approach.

I am working on something interesting that I think lends itself well to a webinar so hopefully I can put that together so we can start taking things to another level. My website is about a day away from being turned over to me. I keep botching some of the changes in the Word Press edit mode and have to wait over night for the hoster to reset things for me, UGHH. There are two modes to be in for editing and if they have created content it requires one mode and if I have created it there is another mode. Whenever you use the wrong mode the whole thing gets messed up. Believe me running a trading business and trading are two completely different animals to say the least.

Let's be watching the Bernanke's here something is brewing with them I think in the next few days.

On a side note, I went over to a buddies place to watch the NCAA mens final, I am from Michigan originally so I was pulling for them. My buddy is a big hoops guy and my best friend is an NBA General Manager, so I follow hoops closely. It was a great game too bad Michigan lost but the best team won I think. The coach out coached Michigan's coach. Michigan had them on the ropes with the up tempo full court game and Pitino was able to slow it down which favored his team. I bring this up because one thing I always do when I am trading lousy is slow things down. I am not a fast break up tempo trader. I like to wait patiently for certain things. At times I push things in the Swing trades trying to catch a fast break and that is why our win percentage is lower in that than bonds. I am not going to do that any more. Sometimes I worry that there are not enough trades for people and they may not be happy about that. However, the bottom line is making money not the number of trades. Look for fewer trades that we stay in longer in that service.

What I hope people do with the writings here is use them to study on their own some of the things I discuss. You may well be able to use them better than I do.

Good Trading

STOCKS UNDER OR OVER VALUED?

Zero Hedge had this yesterday and I think it is interesting. You can see it came from one of the dark over lords Morgan Stanley. There is a lot of talk now about how stocks are very cheap by historical standards and as a result are going to ramp up in price from here. I am a believer in timing stock market swings at extremes with earnings ratios in general. In general is the operative phrase. What I want to do is buy when prices are low and the ratios show under valued levels, and sell or go flat at high points, where stocks are over valued. I have not found any evidence in my research over the years to support buying at extended price levels on the high side regardless of whether or not earnings measures may or may not be valued correctly.  

What I like about this chart is that it focuses on Forward P/E's. I have found that measure to be one of the two best of all the measures for doing this type of thing. For every egg head who comes up with something like this there is another showing another stat with the reverse, supporting a buy here. I think at some point you have to step back and just think using basic logic. By any measure the stock market is extremely extended during this rally, we are at all time highs basically. Is it really logical to believe that stocks are under valued at such a price juncture? Not in my mind.

I went through some statistics in my Newsletter this month about this time of year with the stock market that also do not support a new long position being put on here, and why. If we pair this with the horrible NFP report with the absurd doctoring of the head line number with the participation skit, it has never been more clear that there is a huge divergence building here. We then have the story break about the trader who was supposedly controlling 20% of the ES on any given day. There seems to be a preponderance of events now taking place telling us to look out.

I always focus on price and from that stand point we do not have sell signals yet from a broad perspective. We once again saw the PPT bring the market back from the brink yesterday, and this has become business as usual. It is a shame that something like this is so widely accepted by the public. I never would have thought 10 years ago that the public would be so accepting of this level of government intervention into our lives. From that perspective it is different this time. The proposed changes by BO with retirement accounts are the next step in the re-distribution plan. It is becoming as clear as day that his policies are wrecking this country and I am now getting a little worried that the fall from all of this is going to be sooner than later. When I see his proposed budget adds $7 Trillion to the debt, I am beginning to think now he is doing this intentionally to bring us to our knees. I thought before he was just so set in his ways and was stubborn, but there is no way with the advisors he must have including Soros, that he does not know his plan is going to bring us down. As a result the only conclusion I can come to now is that it is deliberate.

What does all of that editorial stuff have to do with trading? We cannot just go run and hide or blindly short the market because we think politics are leading us astray. The last few years have shown what a mistake that can be. However, it does tell us from a bigger picture perspective, that we may have a monster short trade to be had out there on the horizon. Catching it correctly is never going to be easy because of what the FED is doing with yesterday being a great example. We had the real reaction happen pre-open, then the governments reaction once the pit session hours kicked in. If you are inclined to try and catch this short I think you have to be willing to probe a few times and get kicked around a little. This is not easy to do from an emotional stand point. I am going to be looking for a short entry on a bounce from here now.

I wanted to show a chart of a trade we are currently in with the Swing signals to illustrate how we are trying to ride trades for a big longer. We got long on March 25th in this trade and have been trailing a stop up since that time. I have one possible short term target on the chart that I judged was too close and we should try for more than that amount. I do use discretion in these trades. In this case that turned out to be a good call since we zoomed through that level. You can see we traded in sync with the highlight bars showing green for a buy where we entered. I would love to say those highlight bars are the holy grail but they are not, not even close. They just give me a general idea of where the trend and momentum line up and the direction the large moves should go. In choppy markets they can go back and forth but tend to do so less than some of the other things I have used over the years.

We are going to be taking profits here shortly since we have had some range expansions especially yesterday. The PPT took a little back from us when they reversed the stock market late.

This coming week should be interesting, hopefully we get a bounce to sell. I hope everyone enjoyed the Newsletter I think it is imperative to get the stock market right and so far I have been dead on with it. Timing the long exit and or short is going to be key going forward.

Have a great weekend

NATURAL GAS - ARE YOU NEWSLETTER PEOPLE GETTING THE HANG OF IT?

One of the ADX setups is here for those who are studying the Trading School section of the Newsletter. Once again this is a setup, not a situation where you just run in guns a blazin! We also have the COT picture supporting a potential decline and we also have something interesting going on with Open Interest. If you look at that you see a huge increase just by itself is bearish. If you add to that the significant decline in the Commercial long position it tells us this big Open Interest increase is everyone but the guys who matter.

It is time to put this on the watch list for a sell. I do not see any reason to sell yet.

Tomorrow we get the comedy and magic club routine otherwise known as the NFP report. After the weekly claims and the ADP report before it one could reasonably conclude the report might not be very good. Of course we know that means nothing any more. There is a big recovery we are told and millions of jobs are being created allegedly. Things are so good I just can't stand myself how about you?

I don't try and game this report, never have. I won't be watching when it is released unless for some reason I happen to wake up with another zany idea to go check out that can't wait. I still don't have a good feeling about things but trying to guess when the FED's scheme might come to an end is too tough for me. I do think the story about the rogue ES trader is a must follow story. We can only hope it leads to some truths being revealed but who am I kidding?

I apologize about the difficulty with the Newsletter somehow that link got out to a lot of the wrong people. Based on how many people emailed me asking for a copy and comparing that to our list of clients and how many people viewed/downloaded it, it got it somehow to a lot of people that were not authorized. I am just asking one more time please not to do things like this. I worked very hard on this one so I hope everyone enjoyed it. These are interesting times and we need to stay on top of things right now. The chance for a shock is out there.

Have a great weekend

PPT SERVING SOMEONE UP?

I have to give it up to Zero Hedge. I have no idea how he comes upon all this information throughout each and every day. I found this article quite interesting. It seems we now have a second "rogue trader." If you read through this article there are all sorts of things that might come to mind. There is one thing in particular that jumped out at me, 20%.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-03/how-28-year-old-ex-goldman-trader-who-accounted-20-e-mini-volume-blew

The nefarious relationship that exists between banks and the FED has been showing it's true colors over and over. One of my favorites is what has been called by some setbacks. Translated this is segregated fund money that the bank holding it somehow comes up with some BS reason as to why it is all of the sudden theirs to keep. Judges never wanting to be one upped by the next corrupt person kindly oblige them and let them steal the money. See recent fraud cases for more on this, I am not a lawyer but do know JPM is forecast to keep some of the PFG money through this process.

We see the banks constantly getting inexplicable favorable treatment in court cases. It is my allegation that the reason for this is there are some back door relationships going on that "we are not privy" to. It has long been alleged that the PPT does it's dirty work through Citi, GS and JPM. Is it a coincidence that the rogue traders caught "manipulating" the ES worked for those firms? Here is the bigger question, why is the CFTC allowing GS to exceed Large Trader position limits? They are not commercials, they should not be provided unlimited position sizes. Since positions have to be reported at the end of each day, why did more than 1 day go by before forced liquidation of some of a position like this took place?

It has been alleged by me that the big run in Crude Oil was caused by the CFTC allowing commercial status of large commodity funds where they could push price to ridiculous levels. If you look at the COT report during the huge Crude rally in 2007-2008 the commercials had a monster long position right at the top! That would not likely ever happen with true commercials who are hedgers. It was pointed out by me and many others more prominent, that something was amiss with that situation. Now we fast forward again to this bizarre situation.

There are all sorts of possibilities and I have no proof to make a case on any of them. I do find it curious that he apparently was only a long side trader. Anyone who trades knows you can make money faster in crushing the market with a short position. If his sole goal was money why didn't he play both sides and bully in both directions? Might there have been another reason? Might there be a back door deal already struck here? I would love to say we should have an investigation but we see where those all go. At this point it would only be truly investigated if all guilty parties were Republicans. If there was one democrat anywhere that would be implicated Holder won't do anything as we know. Let's hope this guy is a Republican, maybe he will spill the beans if there are any to be spilled. I will just leave this commentary with the following thought, I think there is a heck of a lot more to this story than we are ever going to find out.

The following chart speaks for itself.

It certainly appears the free fall is beginning. I am sure Fib guys have a Christopher Columbus type of navigation chart drawn showing the magic numbers this will stop at. If it breaks through the 1538 level and closes below it, I see nothing anywhere on this chart that is even a target. This means the target if you are short is $950 or lower since the chart only goes that low and there is nothing even there to zero in on. I am going to be sad not happy to see people get cleaned out on this one if it progresses like I have said all along it would, really sad. It is not over quite yet 1538 at press time is still holding.

I am pissed at myself for not being short the Russell, but catching this was not easy. I did say that was where to play so hopefully some of you caught this. We have caught it being long interest rate contracts but we should have had this also, bad judgement call by me.

Good Trading

SILVER CRASH

I have been saying for the last two years that the metals would retrace more than 50% and I thought quite a bit more than that. It is funny how we are not hearing virtually anything about the crash in the metals. The line on the chart is where the 50% decline point lies, we are getting pretty close. It is another example of the media being so invested in pushing a story. A 5% gain is an explosive up move but a 50% decline is not worth talking about apparently. How would you like to be "that guy" who bought at the highs, paid the standard 20% markup on top of the spot price? He is already upside down more than 50%, close to 70%.

70%

That is not a typo. This is where everyone said to go for safe haven, a close to 70% loss is a safe haven? It is a good thing it has never gone to zero like the ads say. I don't think the pet rock ever went to zero either. This is not an I told you so article although it may sound like it. The point is that commodities mean revert, ALWAYS. Just because Sean Hannity, Oliver North, a myriad of actors and the Gold Bugs have told you these markets will rise forever, it does not absolve you from doing your own home work. If you bought at 5k I hate to say it but you got what you deserve, it was like buying a condo in Florida to day trade it back in 2005, no different at all. Once we get down to the 2002 levels or close to them in the metals, that will be the opposite, a great buying spot for a reversion back up. At that point everyone will be overly negative. That is commodities and I don't understand how people constantly get hoodwinked on these stories, they are all the same. I am not celebrating I could still be wrong about the total reversion but I am not wrong about it historically having always happened. If we don't wind up all the way back down it will be a first.

I don't know if we will just accelerate down or meander our way back down there over a longer period of time and I don't care. I never signed off on this ruse to begin with. At the moment the bulls do have a line in the sand that they could buy against hoping their story about it being different this time turns out to be true. For all I know they are right and I am wrong, but the 50% or close now retracement from the highs already makes my point. The Bugs said this could never happen and they said the same thing about real estate. I think the total lack of coverage of this 50% drop speaks for itself.

I wish I had caught this last move down but I did not. This market chopped sideways forever it seemed before breaking down. I did say yesterday that although I was looking for a buy in Gold, I thought it was likely to follow Silver which was breaking down. The net of it is the setup for this drop did not meet my rules so I missed it. I know of no technique that catches all the moves I wish I did. My comments on this market have mostly been targeted at those who are too heavily weighted in their portfolios in the metals because of the media push to sell these things to you as a safe haven option.

I am sooooo tempted to try and short the Bernanke's here but it has just been suicide to try and short this thing over the last 6 months. The Russell is the one to short if you want to take a shot at it. We have 18 POMO days this month so it is not going to be easy to get a good short going but never say never.

Good Trading

REPORT CARD TIME

BONDS - $3000

SWING TRADES - $476

The final tally is in and this is where we wound up last month. If I display it like this during most months where we make money I have to give equal billing when we don't. The highlights and low lights were as follows.

The Bond System had it's worst month since we went public with it but we did recover from a larger mid month dip. I went through in another post the re-insertion of a filter which has worked like a charm since I did it letting 3 trades through that all won including today's buy, and it screened 3 bad ones. That is pretty darn good in my book. This is how systems work and it is also how any trading approach works, there are losing trades. I have told people from the very get go not to get too carried away with themselves when we had that incredible winning streak last year. I know there is also going to be periods like this. We risk $1600 per trade so if you look at this, the net for the month was not even the equivalent of two full losing trades. That is little consolation if you happened to just start trading it right when the losing streak started. There were a couple of people who signed up at about that time. There were also a couple who started trading the Robbins auto trade right after the losing streak and have caught the three straight wins we have had as their first 3 trades. In the end all of this evens out over time.

You have to stay in these types of things for a while to get the full benefit. Most people are not patient enough to do this so we do have some people coming and going. I will say for the most part though the group has been stable. If you started with it from the beginning you have one heck of a net profit on your hands even after this month, so I suppose it is easier to deal with a losing month, with that much profit already in the bank. I take the trades to as I think most everyone knows.

We only had one trade in the Notes version of the system that made a profit of $63 so not worth even reporting. We will monitor that as we go along. If you are a system trader whether it be my system here or somebody else's, if you believe it will remain profitable you should start trading it when it has a losing streak, not when it is on a new equity high. It is human nature to wait for it to be "safe" and the statistics work against you if you do that. I started trading it more heavily at the trough and it has paid off for me.

The Swing Trades worked out ok in the end. It is never ok to have a losing month, but I do have them and when they are that small it is almost a scratch in my book. We had a very nice Crude trade at the end that helped us a great deal. The changes I described I have made to how these trades will be done which subs are already probably noticing in the orders and how they are being placed, will lead us to catching some larger trades. We are also going to be staying in trades longer. We are starting to move enough size where we can't get too cute with orders since we have been picked off a few times and in reality trying to catch little wiggles is no way to go about this anyway. I did have one bonehead trade trying to short the ES which killed us, what a dummy.

All in all last month was not good by any stretch of the imagination, but we did have a good last two week comeback from where we were. For those Newsletter readers, I sent out a PDF sharing link to get this month's edition because we could not shrink it enough to get it under the Aweber file size limit. I am ready to kick them to the curb and will do so at some point. It will be available through our web site going forward and we won't have to deal with that kind of stuff.

POT POURRI

I have to admit to something that I normally would not but this forum is somewhat of an inner monologue for me so here goes. I keep getting a nagging feeling that comes back to me over and over and over. At times it stays away for a while but ultimately it comes back. That feeling is that all of this nonsense that is going on is going to end very badly. The Cyprus situation has paved the way the same way the tax increases at the beginning of the year did for more of the same. One of my favorite readers emailed me something today that was somewhat alarming in that it was legislation elsewhere in the world thousands of miles from Cyrus, where it is being written into law that banks can confiscate deposits in the event of an unexpected insolvency. This is not a third world country, in fact it is one that is considered to be among the most stable of any country financially. This country is even being praised for having done the right things and as a result is not in as precarious a position as places like the US. Then I read this stuff about the Bitcoin! If that is not a scam they should remove that word from the dictionary. A supposed asset that nobody knows how the value is determined and some small company is making a fortune selling it! Talk about a dog named POOF, that is what will happen to that money..... POOOOF!!! They should call it the POOFCOIN.

I just see this overall sign of people knowing the governments are BS'ing them and scrambling to try and find a way to protect themselves. What it all tells me is what I have been saying for the last few years. If you took every single thing in the world and left it unchanged tomorrow and just changed on thing, DOW = 5600 instead of DOW = 14500, you would have a scene around the world like the scene in Caddyshack where the caddies take over the pool. This is exactly why the FED is so focused on keeping the stock market rallying, they know what they are doing in terms of manipulating the collective psyche of the public. I just have a nagging feeling at some point when this does roll over, it is going to be really ugly. I do not believe that roll over is necessarily near, but when it does happen it is going to be really interesting. If the Gold market does follow stocks down instead of rallying, it is going to be even worse because a lot of people have been sold that idea. Maybe it will be a safe haven I don't know, there is no consistent historical bias either way on that contrary to what they say so it is a 50/50 proposition.

I have been looking to buy Gold but have not found a way in yet and Silver is on the verge of collapsing again, so it makes me wonder if Gold won't follow it off a cliff. That mid 1500's price is still a line in the sand for Gold. You Gold bugs better hope that does not get taken out, it will be another POOF if it does. I also find the Copper weakness a bit surprising when comparing it to the ES.

THE DOLLAR

Since we are light a few dollars after last month lets look at the Dollar to see what is brewing there.

I think good ole Uncle Joe might say "this is a big f___ing deal." The commercials have taken on their largest short position in years right now. We are kind of in no man's land in terms of a trend since we have essentially gone sideways for 5 years.This is what irks me about these morons who talk about how the dollar is getting killed. Is is really? The dollar index is at the same price as it was 5 years ago. This is when they break out all their cute little new age formulas that they have back figured to support their argument. "Well adjusted for the price of inflation, blah blah blah." Have any of you gone to McDonald's and told them you will give them the inflated adjusted dollars for your food. As my dad says that stuff is just horseshit. BTW he is thrilled because he lives in Michigan and they made the final four in Hoops in spite of the referees in his mind trying to make sure they lost every game. He is a pill, he would have been the best color man for Monday Night Football ever had they discovered him.

I will never forget a guy I met several years ago that was always factoring in inflation adjusted dollars to everything he did. He was European and very bright and wanted to be a trader. I had lunch with him a couple of times and was amazed at how he was so infatuated with inflation adjusting everything. All the inflation numbers are doctored, how could you possibly ever do that accurately? Before we know it the CPI will be reported as not only ex autos, ex food, it will be ex inflation. "The CPI today ex inflation was ..." He could not make a trade in the currencies because he was tied up in his underwear with all these inflation calculations. Good grief! He could not understand how I could trade my Bond System when it had no calculations for inflation. That was 2007 when I came in third in the Robbins contest trading the Bond System alone and nothing else.

What we don't know at this point with the DX is whether or not this is just the standard hedge the rally deal with the commercials. Often they go from a heavy long to a short like this when trends change and it is not an indication to get short. You can see an example of that in Feb of 2010 on this chart. Had you shorted that right when they got heavily short you would have gone on quite a ride. Had we been rallying steadily and reached an obvious resistance point and this shift had occurred it would make me more bearish than this does. I am unsure on this one right here. The seasonal does tell us down and my shorter term momentum indicators have rolled over, so I am leaning short here but have not done anything just yet.

Good Trading

STOCK MARKET CRASH/HOGS GONE WILD!!!

APRIL FOOLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I did it again, whored myself out for blog traffic!!!!! I know if I just put a solid positive headline nobody will come here, so sad but true. I thought for April Fools I would try the ole' bait and switch move. If you are mad you got duped hang tight, I am going to cover the ES today, just not first.

Regular readers can see the familiar pattern I often show here. The commercials have become heavy buyers of this market after a big down move. This in and of itself does not necessarily mean we should be buyers here. I have a video that is going to be in the new web site that covers this type of thing. However, in this case there are some things I use that are not shown that lead me to conclude this is a buy setup. Newsletter readers should have picked this out it is in last months Trading School section that has been so popular in terms of the feedback I have gotten.

 I also warned not to go Hog wild no pun intended with that setup just stand alone. Here we have a basing pattern happening that accompanies it so this has a bit more going for it. My wish list has this consolidating a little bit more first before I will try to buy it but who knows that may or may not happen. I try to remain patient and not force things. I don't always accomplish that but I try to anyway. This one is on my radar.

There is a noteworthy "expert" calling for a major sell signal in the stock indexes right now and I am going to cover what I think is the basis for that reason. I can't stomach reading his details because he specializes in revisionist history in his claims on his signals. Nonetheless, he has had some good sell signals over the years he just happened to have blown the whole rally off the 2009 lows telling subs including me prices were going to 5500. The revisionist chart he markets shows him with a buy signal at the lows which is a complete lie, he had no such buy signal in his writings at that time. In any event, here is a chart that is likely to have some commonality with his call.

The net commercial short position has really gotten large here with the ES. You can see it has been clearly declining sharply during this whole rally since October of 2011 so knowing that has been of no value. I talk about this all the time that using this is an art not a science. We have now gotten to a pretty extreme level and it has increased sharply lately. The real trick with this market in particular is that we don't know how the unprecedented manipulation by the FED of this index specifically is being categorized in the report. I think it is showing up in the Large Speculator category because you can see there was a huge net long at the major low back in 2009 and Large Speculators do not trade that way, they scale in and scale out. As a result it is highly unlikely the normal Large Specs would have had major longs down there. All else being equal they would have had major shorts, just study some charts.

What I think is likely is that the FED is not actually making the trades, they are instigating them through intermediaries who they are giving a pass to in the way of no position limits. We know they tell anyone to piss off when they are asked for their books, so we have no way of checking any of these things. As a result what we are most likely seeing is the Large Spec big long being the FED and the normal hedger types being the commercials. The Large Specs are able to fight off the commercials because they are being allowed to have unlimited size to keep the game going.

This makes this a tricky call as to how much credence to give this situation. My feeling at this point is that if we get a price pattern that is a sell it is worth a shot because of all of this. However, I don't consider it to be as high a probability trade as it would have been a few years ago before this manipulation got really out of the barn on us.

This is all conjecture on my part based on experience of reading this report. I am making some assumptions that could be incorrect. However, I think the world has accepted as common knowledge that the FED is manipulating the stock market and nobody cares because the average Joe is benefiting. Remember what we have learned through Cyprus, nobody cares about bad things until they themselves are hurt by them. As long as it is someone else who is getting screwed it is ok and it is for the greater good.

Here is another example of misguided logic with good intent.

Here is our newest free agent signee Gus "The Bus." The name comes from his sheer size which does not really show in this picture, he is 180 lbs. If you keep in mind that the opening he is guarding is a double door dining room you can get an idea of how big he is. The opening he is covering is about 8 feet wide and he basically covers it all the way across. He is a retired champion show dog that my wife drove 26 hours in total to get from the Breeder who was retiring him. Since he was a show dog he is used to an environment where the female that is being bred is kept separate in a caged off type of environment. In our house that he arrived at we had one of our dogs Leo ( a dude ) is in this pen area because he just had knee surgery and has to be confined while he recovers. Gus the bus assumes Leo is a female so he is protecting him from the rest of the crew like he is his girl friend. What he doesn't realize is his girl friend is a 170 lb dude! His heart is in the right place but the plan is actually flawed. This reminds me of some things economically that are going on right now.

I hope you are enjoying your Easter for those US readers.

CYPRUS - THIS PROVES MY POINT

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-29/caught-cyprus-crossfire-small-businesses-suddenly-zero-cash

Since I seem to be alone in my forum here about my views on the Cyprus situation, I thought the dissenters might want to rethink their views based on reading this above article.This is the exact point I was making, there are plenty of regular people getting hurt including this business that was shut down. In the end this is so similar to PFG and you people need to wake up. In fact the numbers in this are not too far off from mine from PFG. At this point I have only 30% of my money and it appears no more is coming for at least a year or more from now. I was already affected this dramatically, but ironically this pushed me into a business offering the services, and that has worked out very well for clients so far with them being very profitable. The saddest part of all of this and also the brilliance of those who are doing this makeover of the US is this. They have been able to create a small majority who relish in someone like this being ruined. Now it is a bad thing to have had $800k in a business bank account. That money should be taken from him anyway and given to others less fortunate. How dare he have a business and employees? It is unfair that he had 800K and we need to take some of that from him. After all if we are bus boys we are hard workers too why shouldn't we have some of his money? The reality is he will take his jobs elsewhere as he should. I think even though I don't like it at all, that this plan to makeover the US into this type of collective thinking is brilliant. This is why I maintain that the last election told us the collective will of the US has been changed for a very very long time. Reversing this type of thinking is almost impossible.

It is a far cry here in the US as compared to Cyprus in terms of something like this coming ashore, but let me throw out something else that is going on here I found out about yesterday. I had lunch with a friend of mine who has a close friend who owns many things among them a gun store in Arizona. A funny thing happened with the gun store owner and our precious government. The government came in and bought all of their ammo, every last bit of it. They gave them $1.6 Million and told them just to store it. I had heard something about his on the news the other night and just brushed it off and I should not have. Since they cannot get guns outlawed they are going to use tax payer money to buy all the ammo. This type of thing should scare the you know what out of all of us. It is starting to appear that people who were labeled as extremists who have been talking about the government take over of our lives are nothing of the sort. They are telling the truth. I guess I have been naive, I did not realize the level to which they are going to transform us. There is one guy that is a bit goofy, but he has gotten virtually everything right in advance, Glenn Beck. It is amazing that a guy with his background would be this dead on accurate about things. I am not sure his solution which seems to be just pray to God is really going to work, but I am starting to listen to him now. He talked about the gum ammo thing a long time ago, as well as many other things. I am not saying I subscribe to everything he says the point is just that he has called in advance virtually all of the bad things that are happening, and he has been kicked to the curb by the main stream. The last part is the reason to listen to him. I know liberal readers will go ballistic over this but I am not so sure this is that much about politics any more. This government take over is about power more than ideology. I listen to left leaning people all the time trying to understand their views, if you lean left listen to the right, you already know what you think so you don't learn anything listening to the same views. I am the same way, I get annoyed some times listening to the conservatives, it is just blah blah, stuff I already know. I want to hear the opposing views, maybe I am wrong? At times I have changed my views from doing this.

How does this tie into Cyprus? When you look at governments around the world if you throw out the dictatorships ( although that could almost throw us out now ) you see that most of them are doing the same types of things. Do you really think banking is done that much different there than it is anywhere else? If you look at the ratios in US Banks, the real ratios, you will see that the reserves they have measured against the exposure in bad loans, is almost nothing. If even a small percentage of the bad loans go bad, they do not not enough money to cover it. In the end where might they go to get it? When you are delivering bad news to people it is always best to ease them into it, that is what is happening here. We are being eased into thinking all sorts of things, including it being ok to steal people's money in a bank, is an acceptable option. I think you are kidding yourself if you really are not concerned about this.

I think the best plan is to spread things way out, cut your exposure to any one place. Try and find banks that do not have much real estate exposure, and be prepared to take a hit of a 100% loss in any one place or perhaps more than one, and have it not be a game changer. If you think about it, these people had no reason to believe this was on the verge of happening. If it came to us here neither would we. We would be lied to until the day it poofed. The CFTC lied to us about PFG and the other FCM's but that is okay apparently. I have no idea if this could happen here but I have learned the hard way never say never.

I want to address the Trading School portion of the Newsletter for a bit here. I know from the feedback that a lot of you are excited about some of the things we have been writing about which is great. This is the whole intent of that section. However, I want to tell you what not to do with this techniques.

When I first started out trading and even to this day, I have one bad tendency that I am aware of. When I find a technique that works really well I tend to overdo it. One of my favorite phrases in life which is a quote from my wife's brother is " anything worth doing is worth over doing." Unfortunately he uses it to justify being a drunk, and it is an equally bad idea in trading. I just like the phrase because I think it is funny. Most of us are very passionate about trading and it is why we grind out the process day after day. The techniques we taught over the last two months with ADX are seemingly very popular, and they should be. These are valuable tools. What you don't want to do with these is go crazy trying to fade every trend move when these reversal indications start to develop. I am going to eventually do webinars on these types of things but there is only so much I can do each day, so it may be a while before I can get to that.

The single best trade to make is the first one you can catch once a trend has changed, it is what I call the lowest common denominator. Here is a chart that shows this basic idea.

What that last phrase means is basically your lowest risk trade. You can see in the Crude chart here that the best trades were right where I have the green highlight bars or red after they have changed from the opposing color. These are proprietary trend change indicators we use, they don't all work this well. However, in the service we knew when we got stopped out on the short in Crude we had a trend change happening so we definitely wanted to reverse and go long knowing this was the lowest common denominator for a long position. It was the first possible entry. There was one losing trade that would have occurred at the lows before the first arrow where you can see we shifted from long to short and got whipsawed. So this idea got 3 out of the 4, not bad by my way of looking at things. 

Do not bother asking what these highlight markers are we are not going to divulge those at this point. Blogger is striking again it won't let me left justify here so I am going to cut off this post here. The main point I want to make is that use the tools we teach, but don't go crazy with them. The ADX techniques work great but they work best when combined with some other type of indication in the price that the trend has changed. I do not just blindly fade market moves just because those patterns are developing.

Happy Easter Holiday to everyone

ES SHENANIGANS?

I am fairly sure I was one of the first but not the first to start openly talking about the PPT and their manipulation of the Stock Indexes. I was made aware of this by one of my original teachers and once I learned about it seeing the patterns and the buy programs that made no sense became pretty easy.

It used to be that the discount and premium to the cash market was monitored closely by the big funds and they would launch programs to take advantage of displacements when they got out of whack from one another. They happened at regular times usually 10:30, 11:00 and sometimes 11:30 am PST. You could often see them coming and could front run them once you got the hang of it. The first major change I remember seeing was during the Bush/Gore fiasco in the courts when the stories came out. It has been the function of the PPT since long before that to show up on big down days to try to do late day saves. Often these attempts succeeded. Back in these days volume would give them away. This has changed.

The strategy now appears to be to wait for very light volume times where the price can be moved while spending less money to do it. Ironically the government is finally cutting spending, who would have thought it would be here? They let the moves drift until the volume dries up then out of the blue it moves. These moves often come with no meaningful displacement between cash and futures which tells us it is not the normal suspects and some other "unknown" buyer. It is interesting for someone who has been watching intra day price action for so long, to see this play out this way.

In the 5 minute chart above I see no obvious manipulation by the way I would normally spot it yet I do suspect that during these days it has gone on because of the big dips that were reversed. To be clear not every dip that ever happens in stocks is reversed by manipulation, that is not true. There is an upward bias to the stock market in general. We also currently have a very strong trend, so buying dips is the normal prudent approach to take during times like this. It does not matter what causes the trend, the trend is there and you need to be in sync with it. I will never forget reading an article several years ago that was written about short sellers in a big bull market and how they were actually right and the market was wrong. Really? I beg to differ. The markets are always right and it is we who are wrong when we are not in sync with it.

Shorting markets like this is very tough. There is most likely a sharp break out there that would be very lucrative to be involved with when it comes. However, it is not a great probability play to try day after day to fade a trend this strong. Pick your poison.

I would like to see a bounce in Cotton for a short just as a heads up for one market I am watching. I do have short term sell indications in the indexes but the chart pattern here is unclear to me.

CRUDE OIL DELIVERS

For those Newsletter readers you can see the ADX pattern we have written about on this chart, some of you probably caught this better than we did. We actually shorted the false break then reversed to long once the trade failed. How did we know to do this?

You never "know" to do anything in this business and one of the hardest things to do is to immediately reverse after you have taken a loss like we did here. This is especially true in the trading services where we have to tell folks in advance to do it. My logic here was that we had formed a tight congestion pattern and I thought the breakout would have some travel room to it. We just played it both ways, reversing when the first breakout failed. There are some inner workings to this as to why I thought this congestion would result in a breakout that are a bit more complex. However, the net net is just we were trying to trap the market and we were successful.

Often when there is a really strong short term burst like this for a few days markets pause. Since this trade got us back to a good spot I decided to exit after the burst. We were in a hole in the Swing service this month until this trade and now we are in a much better spot. That equity position would not in and of itself been a reason to exit had the short term expansion pattern not been there. You have to trade the trades for their individual merit.

This trade leads me to something I was going to wait for months end to discuss but have decided to do so today. We have made a few tweaks to the Swing trades and this Crude long was the first one that was done with the tweaks. As I have written many times in the past, I don't jump around from technique to technique trying to always be perfect. I have used the same basic trading tools for a long time with a few minor changes. I recently discovered a better way of using the same tools to stay in trades longer. We are going to be employing it now going forward. Ironically, the first trade in this sequence the short, would not have been a trade with this minor change, but the long was. That is the main reason we stated in the orders to reverse. Since the variation will catch larger moves we felt it was prudent to reverse the short trade if it failed.

At times in the trading services we have had some good trades that have been stopped out and then gone on to make pretty good moves in the direction we were looking to begin with. Some of this has been due to some gamesmanship by someone as I have discussed, but it is also due to the stops being too close which is on me. I have been trying to figure out how to best handle this situation which is what led me to this little change which will make a major difference. Be prepared we are going to sit in some trades for a long time now compared to what we have been doing. We will do a quick sharp volatility expansion exit like we did here at times, but often we don't get these so we will sit in trades for a month or more occasionally.

I have to thank everyone because running this service is what led me to this conclusion, had I not been doing that I may not have made this discovery. It was right in front of me for quite some time and I had been considering it, but making the service run the best way I could make it run is what led me to this. Doing it the way we have had made us money, but we have missed some larger moves that I should have caught and we are going to go get some of those now.

I twitted this morning that I think there are some short term things in the stock market that are bearish. Once again the ADX pattern is there, so something to begin to watch now for sells.

It looks like it is official now after going through another computer, I am just going to notebooks now and connecting them to my big monitor for viewing. I have so many issues with tower computers on my ranch and I have worn out the path the the Geek Squad just to find out my mother board is trashed and I am just done. My wife complains to me all the time about our computer issues which gets in the way of her facebook! You married guys get this one I am sure. She did not want her own notebook because she likes the big screen, so I gave her both.

You may have seen the PFG story that Chumpenstein went for the statutory max on the fees because he has done such a good job getting us 30% of our money back. What an asshole. I guess he just did what any other attorney would do, saw a chance to make millions off innocent victims. I would love just once, one time, to be able to hit one of these guys with a jump spinning back kick, JUST ONCE! Alas it will never happen. I still think Dana White should have a UFC version of Perps vs Victims.

Good Trading

GOLD IS NOT A SAFE HAVEN WHY DON'T PEOPLE GET THIS?

I have written about the alleged safe haven status of Gold now for a couple of years and maybe just maybe I am finally reaching some people. I am sure the Gold bugs will bash me or roll their eye brows labeling me a doubting Thomas, a traitor, a dumb ass. He is someone who knows nothing about economics. Perhaps I am all of these perhaps I am none. Perhaps I am someone who just studies history and has no agenda. There is one reason and only one reason why I say this whole alleged relationship is a fraud, it is not in the data, AT ALL.

Does that mean things can't change and at some point in the future it will become a place where everyone goes for safety? Of course not. All I am saying now is all I have ever said, there is no historical basis of any kind to support this supposed safe haven status alleged to accompany Gold.

Gold is a commodity and as a result it moves up and down and mean reverts. The next snot nose brat that tells me other wise I just might back fist. I will envision him as Wasendorf or that common theif Bodenstein ( see todays news on his fees for PFG ). Look at the chart above during the crisis of 2008, Gold went up and down in direct correlation to the cash S&P 500. It was no safe haven. If you think you should have money in Gold by all means put some there, but it is no lock for a rally during a bad economic period, never has been and never will be. It has gone up and down historically independently of crisis periods. At times it has risen and at times it has fallen. Sorry folks those are the facts just look at some charts after you back fist the snot nose kid who is running his mouth.

I bring this up today because I came across a couple of articles that were remarking about how surprising it was that Gold was down today when all hell was breaking loose in the Euro. It was not a surprise to me at all. I did not expect it to go down or up. I just did not expect it to react to that news and it did not. I am seeing the short term trend as up in Gold, so I have been looking for a buying spot recently. I have not seen one yet. It has nothing to do with the economy at all.

I still maintain a state of shock over the comments that have come to me over Cyprus, but they in and of themselves tell me what I need to know and why what I am going to do with my money is the right thing to do. It apparently is ok for people with more money to have it confiscated as long as it is not yours. After all we have to do something! There was an article that was referred in a post from yesterday that I read and it was another person saying it was essentially ok for people with over 100K in the local currency ( I think about 130k US equivalent ) to have 40% of their money confiscated and the rest frozen indefinitely making it essentially a 100% loss for the time being. You pinheads who have not been through a PFG type of thing have no idea how hard it is to live when you have mouths to feed and bills to pay, when your money is just gone the next day when you wake up. For these people in Cyprus it is no different AT ALL than it was for victims of PFG types of things. They woke up one day with their money frozen indefinitely and wondering if and when they will ever get any back. They have people and families relying upon them and now what are they to do. Don't give me that rich people garbage, grow up! I was rich until PFG too. Trust me B of A or Wells Fargo don't give a damn why you can't pay them, they want their money now or else. Someday it could be you and it would serve you right if nobody cared. This is not directed specifically at any of the posters. Most of you I know and you are nice people who perhaps don't quite understand the devastating effect these things can have on you because you have not experienced them. Trust me you don't want to. If we all give in and accept these types of things as ok it just makes the landscape for doing the wrong thing that much more conducive to doing it. At the end of the day if you have had all your money taken whether or not it is by a criminal or a bank it does not matter to your creditors, they still have to be paid.

Those of you that think this is ok ought to be ashamed of your selves. Those of you who think this is an isolated incident that means nothing for any other place should also be ashamed of your selves. I know what I am going to do and I am taking action now. This is a shot across the bow and there will not likely be someone with a bull horn on the corner telling you to do something next time this type of thing happens. Hint: Gold is not the answer. This is a rap on this topic we are not going to discuss it any more and I may have already covered it too much.

I am getting some short term indications of a possible selling spot in stocks. I do not have any triggers. We were trying to short the ES in the trading service today but were not filled. For those who want a experienced stock traders views on things I suggest reading Trading Markets.com articles by Kevin Haggerty. He is one of my early mentors and about the best there is for stock market swings. He has kids who work on the floor and he also advises major funds on stock trading. He only posts an article about once a week or so. He has an interesting long term view of things.

Good Trading and I will take deep breaths after taking a few swings tonight. I apologize if I offended anyone but I felt these things needed to be stated. I think Newsletter readers are going to like this months edition, I have been working on it the last couple of days.

A HUMBLING WEEK

One of my problems which I don't really consider to be a problem, it that I care about others a great deal.

I am fairly sure a business advisor would tell me not to discuss what I am going to cover today but I don't care. It has been and always will be my goal to deal with the public and any clients I have honestly and in a straight forward manner. I think the following I do have albeit it not very large, is mostly comprised of people who find me different from the typical person on the web. I hope there will always be room for me.

We have had a lousy month thus far being down in both trading services. This is not lost upon me, I make the trades that are in there myself. The trades are directly from my personal trading log I write every night. The Bond system is a mechanical system so those are what they are. However, one thing I constantly do with it is to monitor certain portions of it to see how they are doing. If I see something in one of them that is out of line with what it should be doing I make changes to it in order to adapt to the current market conditions. It is rare that these types of things are necessary but about once a year they typically have to be done.

The way the system is designed, it has a multitude of entry combinations based on all sorts of things from our experience trading this market for so many years. There is a layer on top of that which is a filter designed to catch some of the entries that are not as good as others. I monitor this layer constantly to make sure it is catching bad trades and kicking them out and letting the good ones through. If there is one challenge with the system that is it. As I stated an adjustment to that is rarely needed, but there was one I write about in the web site that I made many years ago when we were transitioning from the pit to the electronic markets that was a life saver. This is what trading is all about, dealing with adversity. I remember words from my High School wrestling coach when he reviewed tournaments or matches going through each member of the team. I was the captain and a very accomplished wrestler, one of the best in the country my senior year. He said once I am not sure why Chris is the only one whoever wins once he gets behind? I did not get behind often but when I did there was hell to pay. I went months without losing a single match, but was behind in several of them at one point or another.

This is how I feel about the Bond system right now. Although we are still way ahead for those who started at the beginning, anyone who started last month has taken a hit this month. I started the auto trade stuff at Robbins this month, of course missing all the great trades we had in Jan and Feb, and the net results without those for the year suck. What I have done is re institute a filter that I had taken out because I did not think it was necessary. We went months without it doing anything at all, then all of the sudden we had that losing streak and this filter would have eliminated all but one of those trades. It will not filter many trades but there are certain situations when there is huge momentum in one direction and our system triggers trades against that momentum, that this  filter will help us eliminate. So far I am glad to report it kicked out two trades that were lousy and let the last two through which were both wins for us. There is nothing that is perfect, but this is pretty good and if you think about it, if you eliminate just one or two bad trades a year it can make a huge difference in draw downs. That is what this will do and has already done.

There is a trader far more accomplished than I am who is selling a bond system, and the most recent draw down in it was over $12,000! Ours has been $4200, so about one third of the other one. It is more expensive than ours as well. All in all I still feel good about this and I personally use it in multiple accounts as I have stated before. I even began trading it in one I had not used it in before because I felt it was a good time to start in with it since there had been a draw down. We also had a few people sign up at Robbins to trade it for that same reason, and they have been lucky enough to start and catch the last two wins as the first trades they got.

What I hope to do once the web site is done is have some explanations of what is behind some of these things which should help people understand how they work in general and possibly have more faith in the methods. I am going to list in the members section the markets each week that are setup in the direction we are looking to trade them. I am hopeful this may help people and perhaps you will be able to trade them better than we do. I just think having this back drop will be helpful so you understand why we are doing what. The site should be up within two weeks. here is how it will look.

How it looks does not matter, it is results that matter. One thing to keep in mind, we were on new equity highs in both services coming into this month. We are having a crappy month but it is not a disaster. For those who have left, thank you for giving us a shot if you are still reading here. Those of you who are hanging with us, thank you. It is amazing to me that you can't have one bad month, I always have a bad month here and there. Each month my trading techniques give me about 35 trades for the Swing Service. That is way too many trades and volatility for most people so I have to pare down the list some. This month I have done a poor job of narrowing down the list. I don't take all 35 of them either, I don't want to trade that much.

CYPRUS

I think what is getting lost here in those who cheer the trashing of rich people and possibly criminals for social justice as they call it, is that they are missing the bigger picture. If you think that once a precedent is set for this it won't grow and creep down to others you are fooling yourself. How many cocaine addicts can do just one line of it? There are 10,000 depositors it appears now are the target and there are numbers flying around as high as a 70% hit! I am sure they are going to lock the money so these people can't take the 30% they have left out. Is that something everyone who hates rich people really thinks is a good idea? When PFG happened and I needed a job to survive there was not a single poor person who offered me one, imagine that! That god an evil rich person came along and offered me one.

When the precedent is set for this type of thing the barn door is going to be open and anyone with a brain who has money is going to take it out of the system. This is going to cause a huge problem in Europe, HUGE! The next time they need money they will just start lowering the level of deposits the penalties apply to. I read in Spain they are levying a very small tax on all deposits now. This is the beginning of something very bad, now they governments can spend even more knowing they can always just take the money directly from bank depositers. Get your plan ready folks, you are a crazy if you don't think this is a big problem potentially in the making. Rich people are smart, that is why they are rich. They will figure out a way to protect themselves and in doing so will take money out of the economy and then everyone who wants to get back at them will wind up paying the price. The world has to have some better off than others, we cannot all be equal. It is not up to you to determine how much of some one else's money you will take. Look at what has happened with taxes. BO promised no new taxes on people under 200k yet he has done exactly what he said he would not do, raised taxes on them as well. Once they start taking the barn door is open. Now he wants to take more and more and more, and the level of income is going to continue to decline where they start penalizing you. Maybe douchefett will finally give up his years old fight with the IRS and pay them the billion dollars he has owed them in taxes for years, oh wait uh er... he wants to pay more? He could start by paying what he has already owed for years to get current. However, he would rather have you pay more he himself does not want to.

THE MARKETS

Michael mentioned to me yesterday that there were some Newsletter writers that were calling for monster stock market rallies right from this point almost immediately, and asked me what I thought. Everyone who reads the Newsletter knows that I have continued to tell everyone to stay long even though there are a couple of potential flies in the ointment. I don't really know if we will go up a huge amount straight from here or not. It is clear you should be long and should stay long. I always have a hard time personally pressing a bet with new money after a market has more than doubled. That does not mean it is not the right thing to do, it means I don't do it. We do know that there is a huge up bias in the stock market and that we want to be long most of the time. However, I like to buy dips so I don't personally feel it is prudent to add new longs right here.

I think once we get to the fall we have to get long and if that means adding to a current position at that time than that is what needs to be done. I would prefer it to be on a pull back but we will have to see what is going on at the time. We do know the sell in May and go away adage does in general work and we are getting close to that time of the year. One of these writers Michael mentioned that was bullish was very bearish on stocks at the beginning of the year and has changed his tune now that new highs have been made. Forecasting in advance is so difficult. What we are seeing now is many cyclical forecasts be way off calling for decline at the beginning of the year which did not happen since we have gone straight up. Now we have the potential inversion of cycles since many of them called for March low points. The next graphic shows the tendency for the first year of the second term of a president which has been a perfect road map so far this year. It is calling for a top to be made now or a week ago.

My short term Oscillators are showing some underlying weakness as I showed yesterday. One of the challenges of the stock market now is the unprecedented stimulus being provided to it by low interest rates. Since we don't think any significant posture changes by the FED are coming it is hard to imagine a big down turn coming. I think retracements are going to be buying opportunities for now. When I read all the stories at Zero Hedge which I can't help but do for some reason, there are some really bad things seemingly going on. However, what everyone needs to keep in mind is what drives stock prices: INTEREST RATES.

This is why we can have this huge disparity between the economy and the stock market that is going on right now and can continue believe it or not. If rates were to rise sharply, you would see the stock market come into line with the economy very quickly. For now enjoy the bull run who knows how far it could go.

My closing thought for this post is a quote or pseudo one since I may have this wrong, "In the end once a man has given something all he has there is nothing more he can do." I do give this all I have. Thanks for reading.

Good Trading