STOCK MARKET TEETERING POSSIBLY?

I will get to the Stock Market in a minute but first I wanted to show a setup in Natural Gas that is worth watching. What we have going on here is what I refer to as a COT Double Top. What this entails is a equal high in the price where the commercials have become heavy sellers trying to potentially contain the price level at hand.

What is also happening here is that we have a very sharp rise in Open Interest that is comprised completely of Small Specs and Large Traders. The commercials are not buying they are selling on a relative basis and heavier than they have in years. This tells us that basically the volume drive is not from the biggest players and as a result I am looking for reversal patterns up here. This is a setup not an entry. The trend on the daily chart is clearly strongly up, so I won't get into fading the trend until I see something telling me there is a trend change happening that ties into this weekly setup. We may not get it and could sail merrily along. If we do happen to break through upward out of this pattern we could see a huge run up here. This is almost the inverse of the Gold situation, where in that case there was huge support that held, held, held, then broke and the bottom fell out. This is that upside down more or less.

I just checked into Blogger to check comments and found my whole post for today disappeared and was not even in the draft folders. What I had talked about was the short term sell signal I twitted about the other day, how it had triggered and what I was looking for. Since this is now a bit late to the dance, here is the chart I had in here that disappeared somehow.

This shows an ideal path for us that we may not get but it would be nice if we did. We are getting the short term support break which does not necessarily have long term implications beyond just the next few days, but it is one small red flag that something bigger could be in the works.

For now the sell below the low of Tuesday with a first profitable open exit, is the quick short term profit trade I was mentioning. Any open < 1542 in the ES would be the exit. Let's hope we get this break and bounce scenario because if we do I will be a player. This market is the most manipulated market in the history of trading so the setups have to be just what I want to play them.

In the wake of the Gold wipeout as everyone scrambles to find an answer like the Keystone Cops this gem was on the web. Had anyone been reading here for the last year they would already have known this.

Here is a quote I had also put in the earlier post that poofed that I found amusing in a Gold Bug site:

As Gold Prices Collapse, Investors Seek Answers

Daily Ticker - Tuesday, April 16, 2013

It's the oldest market pattern in the book.

A long-ignored asset finally gets hot, and its price rises for a while. The rising price of the asset attracts new investors, which drives prices even higher. And as the price rises, investors develop compelling explanations for why that's happening, only some of which may have a solid basis in fact.

The price continues to rise, more investors arrive, and their buying drives prices even higher. Soon, the stories that explained the early price increases get repeated so often that they start to be regarded as fact. The price rises even further. More investors hear the stories and believe them, and hurry to get in on the action. And so on.

At some point, however, for any of a number of reasons the spell breaks. The "story" hasn't changed, but demand for the asset no longer outstrips supply, and the price drops.

At first, investors brush off the price drop as a temporary fluctuation--a "buying opportunity." Then, when the price drops even more, they look for temporary explanations and causes. They often begin to point fingers--blaming individuals, organizations, or conspiracies for the price decline, anything but the theory that the "story" they bought into might not have been true.