BONDS

Here is a weekly chart of Treasury Bonds. As you can see we have had a decent sized decline recently, right after the PIMCO bullish comments were made. At this point we are still technically in an uptrend, but a very choppy one that is difficult to trade. Trading retracements this deep with trend trading techniques, makes for sleepless nights.

We are still holding above support (marked by the red horizontal line). The RSI is reading 49.90 with is neutral. Due to the seasonal down tendency during the first half of the year, I expect this market to head lower overall by mid year, breaking this support level. If this happens, that would mean higher interest rates. It does seem at the moment that the Fed is determined to not lower rates, so this kind of makes sense. However, be clear, that I do not get tied up in "THE STORY." Those are just observations only.

I look at fundamental conditions and mechanical measurements of things to tell me where we are. I only mentioned that because it ties in what appears to be a broader economic situation, with the mechanical conclusion I spelled out initially.