S&P 500Displayed to the left is the weekly S&P chart. It may be tough to see, but the large picture swing system I have is applied to that chart. As you can see it had a long entry back in late August of last year, and is still long.
It is getting very close to generating a sell signal, but it has not done so yet. Very few market peaks are made in January or February, so there is no need to get excited and step in front of this trend. However, as you can see, the sharp downmove that the bond market (purple) has made recently, has set up a large divergence with stock prices. It is possible for these divergences to persist for a few months before stocks are effected. If this relationship stays like this, it is only a matter of time before we see a big stock market decline.
4 comments:
I have to ask is this the same Chris as Trader Chris on Lansner's blog? If so your insight has been great. If you are not hey you have some great trading info on this blog.
Graphix,
Yes I am the same Trader Chris from Lansners Blog. I used to post alot more things in here, but have cut back due to the lack of comments I have gotten. Just for the record I did short the S&P on the open today which obviously has worked out well. It is a short term trade that will be exited on Monday morning. I am looking for a bigger picture decline, but one more high close at close to the highs of the year on a weekly basis is required.
Most big picture highs are not made in January or February, but we are in thin air up here, and it could happen at any time.
I find myself drawn to Lansners blog for some reason.
Chris,
The blogsphere is an interesting place. I started my blog thinking people would want an alternative perspective to the economic situation in OC but I realized that people wanted the more dramatic topics or shock and awe. I think you should keep posting because at least one person is interested in your ideas. As for Lansner's blog you are right there is something that sucks you in. I think it is the vast array of opinions on there.
I think you are right that Jan and Feb are tough months to gain a realistic picture of the market. We are up in thin air right now and we have a plethora of economic data coming out this week as well as Big Ben speaking to the house. Which of course will be picked apart word for word. I look forward to your perspective and to what happens in the market. Keep posting on Lansner's blog too, we need some rational insight from time to time there.
Thanks for the exchange. I will continue to read Lansners blog. I think there are mostly good folks in there trying to learn. Some are looking for reinforcement of what they already believe, and some are actually looking to form opinions. The reality is that the extreme viewpoints in either direction are not likely to be correct.
I do get a kick out of the young kids like Troy trying to represent himself as some type of mogul, he is clearly a fraud. There are a handful of people I would love to meet, they seem very intelligent and level headed.
I do not know what happened on todays post in my blog, the font displayed in giant print, and I could not edit it to make it smaller, oh well!
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