Here is the close out of the short trade from the other day, exited on yesterdays opening for a nice profit. This shows that there is value in shorting at times against strong trends in short term trading.Not all trades work out like this, but if you pick your spots carefully, you can succeed. As you can see from the chart there have been very few short trades my system has generated in the last 30 days, which is good. When markets run like this they are difficult to trade, because most of the time they trade a bit more two sided.
For the average investor, I suggest staying on the long side here, and buying pullbacks. Fighting a trend like this is a losers game over time. In my early days I used to fight trends like this all of the time, and learned from the school of hard knocks not to do it. I did do it here and profited, but I have 20 years of experience trading, which gives me a small advantage in picking my spots carefully.
If you choose to do it honor your stops and keep your egos at the door. When a market is running like this there is no telling how far it will go. It could stop tomorrow, or go for quite a while.
4 comments:
any comments on the 10 year bond?
At the beginning of the year I forecast to my subscribers that the 30 Yr Bond would decline ( rise in rates ) until mid - year, then rally ( decline in rates ) toward the end of the year. Since I have gotten the first half correct, I see nothing out there that makes me view this differently right now.
Chris I saw you comment on Lansner's blog about the Lusk family. I posted a reply and since comments don't always get through I am posting it here.
Trader Chris - I hope your comment was not directed at me. I have met some of the Lusk family myself and they are great people. My comment was not to take at pot shot at the Lusk family. It was to hopefully get people to recall history and that even some of the most successful can fall on hard times. In the 90s the most optimistic and most aggressive were the ones who got hurt the most. Even Esmael Adibi of Chapman was optimistic in the 90s and that is probably why he has been very cautious the last few years.
Everywhere you go in OC and even the inland empire you can find some sort of development commercial or residential that was developed by the Lusk Co. They were the company that originally started the Marblehead project and was possible location for the Nixon Library because of them. They may not be the company to complete the project but it was there vision that made it possible.
You are right I am no where near what John Lusk accomplished in his lifetime and if I can even do 1/4th of what he did it would be more than I could imagine.
So if your comment was directed at me I meant no ill will on the Lusk family at all.
Another OC pioneer has left us as well. http://tinyurl.com/273wuz
Without the Klug family there would be no Balboa Island. Unfortunately they fell on hard times too. I also know some of his family and they are great peole too. He may not have a school at USC with his name but he does have a building.
I guess it was, it was directed at whoever made the comment about Lusk, I do not recall who it was. I probably jumped at you too hard, so I apologize. Due to my relationship with Rob Lusk I had a chance to buy down at Marblehead very cheap, but did not want to move that far South.
I spent many nights at their home partying etc.. and his father was a phenomenal man who always showed everyone the utmost respect.
There is more to the story of what happened to that company than the outside world knows. Suffice it so say that they went down due to things other than straight forward business. It is beyond what I am willing to discuss with an outsider, but I was close to it at the time it happened.
I will not be participating much if at all in the RE blogs anymore, it has just become the same ol stuff over and over. I wish you the best of luck in all of your endeavors. It does seem that the bullish people have disappeared from Jon's blog, what a surprise! However, there are alot of people that have never made a dollar trying to tell everyone else how to make one, which is absurd. My feeling is that you have to have been to the plate, to teach people how to hit. Most people in there will wait and wait, and never do the right thing, it is just human nature.
The phrase whatever is obvious, obviously isn't comes to mind with me and RE nowadays. I doubt this decline in RE is going to be anywhere near as severe as some of the doom and gloomers are calling for. Most of those people would lose their everyday jobs if we had a recession severe enough to cause a 50% drop, and would not be able to buy anyway.
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