Do Not Fight The Fed

Quite frankly I could not have been more wrong when I exited my stocks on Monday. This is where discretionary decisions can come back to haunt you. When trading with systems, which I do, there are still times when some judgements have to be made. This year I have been off by just 10 days in one spot, and here probably about a week, and the result has been a horribly managed trade.

With the bond market breaking down sharply, and the commercials starting to go to the short side, my model will probably give the sell signal next week. However, it would not be surprising to see new highs by then. I do have to confess that in my research I looked at a new timing model developed by someone else, that indicated an exit early this week. This did influence my thinking because he is one of my mentors. I will not make a mistake like this again, it is clear that my system is far superior to his.

When we make new highs, we will once again have one of those broadening patterns I have posted previously. If this occurs while a heavy commercial short position is on, it will be an excellent shorting opportunity. I apologize for steering people wrong on this recent movement, it is one of the biggest blunders I have ever made.