SWEET SCIENCE PART DEAUX
A couple of weeks ago, I do not recall the exact day, I mentioned the Sugar market as one that was setup for a rally. I have placed orders above the market several times, and finally on Friday you can see where the green arrow is, I got filled. You can see the familiar look, the momentum oscillators were moving up well ahead of price, and eventually price "got it." I have written often about how oscillators often diverge against strong trends for a long time before triggering a reversal. At times like what is currently happening with the stock market, a reversal never comes. There is no perfect answer to how to best use this type of situation other than to use your best judgement.
In this case the huge Pro Go divergence ( green line ) helped push me into this one. Yes that also diverges at times without producing reversals. If you want a perfect 100% guarantee, become a union worker somewhere. There is no such thing in trading. This is an odds game. In my trading career in the past I have been way too tied up with looking for the holy grail like so many do. I spent years developing and trading mechanical systems. At times I had spectacular results. However, often what happens is markets find the inefficiencies and eventually eliminate them. As a result trading systems have limited life spans. They were getting shorter and shorter, and I just lost my confidence in them.
The transition back into discretionary trading was painful I have to admit. I had a couple of just awful months, but I knew it would be worth it in the end and it has been. Now when I have several things I use pointing in the same direction I take the trades and live with the results. I do not get the 85% accuracy rate I used to trading mechanically, I wind up at about 60 - 65%. That is more than enough to make solid profits. I use what works for me, I could care less what anyone else is doing.
When I mention a setup in here it does not necessarily mean the move will happen the day I mention it. It means to begin looking for a way to get into the market. In this case it took a couple of weeks before the actual entry showed up after the setup was in place. I will not always put the same thing in every day making sure you get it. I will just give a heads up of what I am looking to do, the rest is up to you. This is not by design, I get busy just like everyone else and forget to do certain things. After all this is a free blog where alot of trading ideas that turn out very profitably are thrown out to you by me on a regular basis.
What more could you ask for?
Larry Williams put out a video yesterday alerting people to this trade, and I suspect that some people may have viewed that and just gone to the market and bought here this morning, which gave an immediate push. You could have gotten in close to where the correct entry was at the opening so I think some people saw that and went in. Let's see if it sticks.