LOOK OUT HACKS HERE I COME!
Anyone who has played golf with me in recent months who might be reading this would surely think this topic was about my golf game. It is in such an utter state of collapse it is shocking. The more I try and fix it the worse it seems to get. However, this topic is in reference to my elbowing my way into the water cooler crowd at work where all the hack amateur economists along with G Gordon Liddy and various other "experts" are calling for the demise of the dollar. I do have to say though, that my bearish view of this market is very short term. My plan is to run in and agree with all these clowns, for a quick move down, then take all of their money when a larger scale rally happens. Will either happen who knows, although you would think by the commercials that "everyone" knows.
Above is the Dollar Index, and you can see my orders of where I plan on entering a short position if we decline to these levels today. I thought for awhile this was definitely going to fill, now I have my doubts. It will take a big stock rally to push this down most likely. However, we are in rally mode in stocks so you just never know. It does strike me as odd, that the gloom and doomers all think stocks and the dollar are both going to tank, yet it could not be more clear that these two markets are trading opposite of one another. Sometimes you have to think about what you are doing, but let's not let common logic get in the way of a good story.
I am still trying to get long Natural Gas as you can see on the chart below. This has a fair chance of triggerring today. You can see the orders on the screen. I like the seasonal strength in this market, so I am really looking to try and get on board with that if possible.
There is not much more really to say here, the momentum oscillators are saying this should lift off but so far no ignition. Next a brief look at everyone's favorite market.
The above chart of the GOLD market shows a huge amount of divergence in the momentum indicators. This can at times be the case when major trends are happening, so that by itself is not a reason to run out and get short. However, if you look at ADX at the bottom, you will see it has really been declining. This tells us the trend is not gaining strength as price rises like it was previously. I believe this means this market should be shorted on any bounce that occurs here. You can also see we have for the first time in awhile, broken the uptrend in price alone. This is a market I will be watching closely next week.
Good Trading to Everyone and remember, it's George W's fault if anything goes wrong so swing away.