Thursday, June 30, 2011


I have not done as much of this in here as I have at times in the past, but I feel compelled at times to show the actual trades I have done to prove that I actually do trade, do make money, and am not some blow hard analyst. There is going to come a time in the future, probably around the first of the year where I am going to resurrect my trading service. At that time for a fee people will be able to get the actual trades I am doing in advance so they can play along. I have had mixed emotions about this because I don't like babysitting people after a losing trade or two. This is a tough business and not every trade works out as well as the series I am going to show today that I just made. However, at times like this past month every trade I do makes a profit, and that is how we get well ahead doing this. You have runs, then back and forth periods, perhaps a losing period then another run etc.. This is how the real world works and it is also how trading works.

When I had my trading service before I had one guy who quit and wanted a refund after I had 22 consecutive wins in it, then took one loss! I am sure he skipped all the winning ones and finally decided to dip his toe in when the loser came around and lost money from a service during a stretch of 22 out of 23 wins. This so annoyed me I gave him his money back to get rid of him, and decided to shut the whole thing down a couple of months later. The public lost out when I did that, but I do not have time to deal with this type of thing. If you are trading and are interested in a service, I would suggest making sure you are well capitalized enough to endure some losses. Even the best traders in the world have losing trades, I sure do. This month of June with no losses is rare, but I do have a good winning percentage so it is the goal I suppose.

I had mentioned repeatedly in here that the Bernanke's were a buy and the Bernanke 2000 ( Russell ) was the one showing the most relative strength and that was where to play. I did exactly that at the points labeled on the chart. I did have a limit order in at the price indicated on the chart way above to take profits if we got there yesterday which we did not. I exited in the vicinity of the close taking out a good gain. We may still hit that target, but since we are in what I consider a bounce in a downtrend, I did not want to get too cute with this one. We are rising again today which I expected, quarter end etc.. I do not care, I got my money out and that is all I ever try to do. I do not try to pick exact highs and lows, that is a losers game. Please do not feel bad for me I trade enough contracts that this much per gives me enough weekend Nassau money for the golf game. This was a really easy move to spot, I wish they all were this simple. However, I do try to zero in on the ones that are the highest probability with the techniques I use because this is the type of trading I want to do. There is nothing worse than doing all of your diligence, pulling the trigger, then finding yourself in the middle of a bunch of slop sideways chop. I try to ferret out those scenarios but still get caught in some of them in spite of my best efforts not to. What the highest probability is is somewhat subjective. I was listening to a guy on the radio the other day who calls himself the anti wall street guy, I forget his name. He had some friend on the phone who works at a commodities firm and they were talking about high probability trades. All they were were simply their random opinions about support and resistance levels. So they were basically just labeling their opinions as high probability. That is not high probability to me. We need to have quantifiable studies to truly know if the probability is high or not. For all I know these two guys are great traders, but that conversation was ridiculous.

I have mentioned that this is in my view a bounce to short, but we could very well just takeoff again to the upside, nobody knows for sure. I do feel that the 834 area is a good sell zone to be watching for now to see if we get any sign of a sell signal in that zone. I am not going to blindly sell this up there, I will need triggers so I hope they setup. It will be within the next couple of weeks if they do.

I also did the IWM in my stock accounts, which is essentially the same trade as the Futures, just in ETF form.

This obviously is basically the same as the futures trade. I wound up getting in this a tad better than the futures because for some reason it was lagging a little when the futures traded through my stop for entry. Nonetheless more or less the same thing. I also did several other stocks, here are a few of them.

I tried to exit all my stocks MOC yesterday but I was at lunch and using my laptop and this one I did not get to until this morning. I got a better price, so I guess it is good that I blew it yesterday. This is Capitol One and I could care less what my opinion on the company is fundamentally, one of my patterns was here and I was bullish on the overall market, so I took the trade pretty simple. This could have been widgets inc for all I care. It is such brain damage to do what Kramer does and just be hit and miss with all these arbitrary opinions on things. I just don't know how anyone can be consistent doing that.

I also mentioned I did Microsoft.

This one was down yesterday so I gave a little back exiting, so be it. I still caught the two biggest days on the chart, so mission accomplished. There were several other stocks I did, all wins, that I am not going to show it just gets too ponderous. The point I am making with all of this which I did here from time to time, is just to show actual short term trades I execute and what happened with them. I have harped ad nauseum about how the world is one trade and this just shows an example of this. You might be able to pick stocks that will decline during a run like this in the Bernanke's, but the wind is at your back trading with the government and it's little games not against them.

That is it for me I am flat and done trading for the month. I do not know if I will post anything tomorrow or not right now. Enjoy the holiday!

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