BOY THAT W WHAT A MAGIC WORKER
It is amazing the George W could cause a crash like this as long as he has been out of office, what a miracle worker. I guess I was wrong about today reversing if it started down big. I did not count on that dumb ass giving a speech. When he talks bad things happen let's face it. Why not blame everyone else? The items I mentioned as to why I thought a reversal might happen from an oversold level today are even more pronounced now, so they still stand. Of course fighting trends no matter the logic is never a great idea. The trend is down in case you did not get the memo yet.
This is the type of thing I have been warning about in here for quite some time. I have said over and over a nasty decline was going to happen at some point because of how manipulated this market has been by the FED. I did not envision it going this far this fast at this time. I still maintain that a very sharp bounce is imminent. For those looking to play it I would suggest shorting the VIX. We have panic like has rarely been seen in history right now, and mark my words that as they came true here this will happen in the metals at some point also. Reversions are statistical realities. There have not been many 5 standard deviation moves like this that I can find. We have about a 20% haircut so far, imagine what the 50 percenter in the metals is going to look and feel like. It probably won't happen until next year the way it looks now but who knows. Once something gets pushed over you can see what happens.
The problem we have now is the sell the bounce trade is now toast. When this does bounce it is going to be suicide trying to short it. I will do it nonetheless if my signals are there, and just get run over anyway. I would think now that more or less if we bounce up to the 200 day moving average, that might be a place to get short, but if the stops are too big I will pass. Since this across the board wipe out has messed up so many other markets, I am not in any trades at all right at the moment. I am still watching the HOGS market to see what happens there. I suppose I am not waiting for a bounce, who knows if it will happen. I could justify being short there right now but I am not so what can I say.
I would suggest to everyone to be careful here, this is a rare occurrence and you do not want to pattern your trading after periods like this. I am mostly focusing on day trading at the moment to keep my head in the game and keep interested. I exited some of the trades I was in that correctly pegged this a bit too soon but it does not bother me. Moves like this are once a decade, even the rout of 07-09 did not go down as fast as this is without any bounces at all.
Since we are in the process of getting whacked again tonight, the PPT has to be lurking. They have a green light now from the public I am sure to save this if they can. They will show up soon, and one morning the average American will wake up to a 500 point up day when the Fed intervenes. I think this will happen in the next few days, but that is just an opinion. I wonder if behind closed doors our imperious leader knew we would fall this far the minute he backed away. It is a testament to how deeply involved in moving this up they were. I personally do not even want to know the details of how they pulled that 2 year rally off.
The good news for average Joe is this. If you knew nothing at all except seasonal patterns, you would not have been burned here. We are in the time of seasonal declines. If you are inclined to buy, wait. Time wise you should wait until October for the seasonal to be back in your favor. I suppose you can average cost your way in if you are a buy and holder. I am not. I go all in, all out.
Other than that VIX trade which is one I am looking at, I do not see anything else other than Hogs on the horizon. There is possibly a silver sell for a short term trade, but the cycles are bullish there so I do not know if I am going there or not yet. Don't go crazy here push away from the screen for a few days and count your blessings that you are not a buy and holder getting your life wiped out right now. I assume that buy and holders don't read here since I focus on short term strategies.