GOLD AND SILVER UPDATE
I sent out a Twit the other day about Silver being ready to tip over and it did, and I also recently showed GOLD as being setup for a near term decline based on the COT data. I always talk about comparative strength and weakness and how you should sell the weak and buy the strong.
At this moment it is pretty clear that Gold is the weak and Silver is the strong. You can see on the chart where Silver which is overlayed on top of the Gold bars in black, has been stronger. Gold has taken out it's last pivot by quite a bit where Silver has held way above the low made on that same day. As a result shorts should be done in Gold and longs in Silver.
How you enter the trades is up to you, I am hoping we move sideways here for a few days to set up a leg down to follow. This may not happen. We are at a critical juncture in Stocks, we are either going to roll over here or have a moon shot higher. If stocks roll back up these two will come along for the ride.
This Friday we get the NFP report which probably will be anti-climactic. The numbers being reported are so far from what they really are through all the manipulation for the purposes of the election, that it is really hard to judge what is really happening with them. I think this is by design and these people are incredibly smart in what they have done. As a result I would not plan on trying to make anything at all out of what is released. If I had to lean one way I would guess they would try to move the number up a little and blame it on the hurricane. That storm was an incredible blessing for them within the tragedy that it really was in reality. It would not surprise me to see the FED show up as big ES buyers on Friday to help spin the "negotiations" but that is an opinion that is worth nothing for the purposes of trading. I still see this at the moment as a retracement of the down move that should be shorted, but if that is true we need to stop right in this area. An upward breakout out from here could put us back in bull mode.
I was offered .41 to .42 cents on the dollar today by a bad debt buyer in New York. I think that confirms what is the most logical outcome at this moment which is about 55% to 60%. They have to make a profit so obviously they are handicapping things in that zone right now. They did tell me they are not offering anything for FOREX because the thinking on their end now is that money is going to the Seg holders which is what I have speculated would happen all along. There is nothing in the court documents yet on this so that is merely a call made based on the law and prior case precedent. If you are a Forex holder hopefully you sold your claim when there was some money that could have been had. In the end I don't think there is going to be any money coming to you unless one of these lawsuits gets somewhere and that will take years even if they are successful which I doubt. I think most people have already moved on and nobody cares about the PFG victims any more.