S&P 500 The LatestHere is the latest picture of the S&P 500. This weekly chart is nice to look at because it keeps things in perspective. You can see that prices have not really dipped much in spite of what some of the people calling for a crash have said.
The commercials have bought this little dip, which is bullish. However, you can see that my Magic Potion indicator has turned negative. This just stand alone is not enough to short the market on a larger scale, but it is reason to expect a sideways to down move here for a period of time.
Overall though, I do not expect to see a large break in the market until the end of the summer, but I am hoping for a dip in the next few weeks to load up on the long side.
I will need to see that bottom indicator turn green to confirm the upmove, which it has not done yet. My overall timing system does still say to be long this market, so dips are buys assuming that indicator goes green on them.
4 comments:
S&P breaks 1440...how are things looking according to your system. I have been watching bonds modestly sell off over the past few weeks as well.
Craig,
My system has never generated a sell signal, it is still long from August. Bonds have been weakening, but it has not been enough to generate a sell signal. With the strong seasonal up bias here, and the commercials being heavily long, I expect this rally to continue. Any pullback is a buying opportunity.
I am curious as to what you think of today's job report and the construction job increase due to favorable weather in the east and the bonds reaction? I think that eventually the construction and RE realated jobs will start to be seen in the jobs numbers.
I have been busy and unfortunately sick but I still plan on getting together with you. I am looking at a short/put on NDE and I want to talk to you in person as to why.
I have always maintained that a national recession is not in the offing, so the jobs report lines up with my larger picture view. Keep in mind that these numbers are subject to big revisions a month later.
The typical seasonal pattern for bonds is for a decline in price into June, so we are conforming to that pretty closely here. I wrote about this in my newsletter a couple of months ago, so lower prices there are what I was expecting in general.
I am also of the opinion that the huge housing crash that everyone is predicting, is not going to happen. I envision a slow bleed downward for a few years, and have to admit I was wrong about this. I under-estimated what the insiders would do to keep things afloat. I did an interview with Lansner regarding my recent home purchase and the reasons why I did it. I think he is writing an article for a magazine, and is talking to various people about what they are doing.
Post a Comment