Where do we go from here?I had mentioned that I would have buy signals for Wednesday, but none of them were triggerred, so I am flat(no positions). Today we come in with a gap down open following an inside bar with an up close.
Historically this has been a good buy pattern and poor sell pattern in general. However, none of my systems generated any buy signals, and in fact one generated a sell signal that was filtered due to the bullishness of the pattern. I want all the stars aligned, so nada for me today.
I do urge caution for those of you not to react too emotionally during these types of periods. Do not chase the market, and please trade smaller positions than your normal size. It is tempting to want to make a killing during a period like this, but more people blow up than make killings during market crashes. The worst thing that can happen is to bet the farm on one short position, have it pay off, and have a bad habit reinforced. Market conditions like this come around once a year for a week or two, so you can not pattern all of your methods on the rare occurences. Do not pyramid and press your bets. There are likely to be sharp moves up and down over the next week, and you can really get whipsawed.
The trend has changed here, but we are really overextended down right now, so the odds of a sharp bounce are high. You do not want to be short the farm when a 20 point bounce in the S&P happens.
3 comments:
I am so glad irvinerenter made his way over here. He has a very well thought out point on the housing market. BTW when is escrow closing for you? I am still impressed with the $700k discount. I may be a housing bear but if it makes sense and for what you know and want it makes sense.
So what are you using for trading? I have Ameritrade and downloaded thinkorswim. I have to play around with thinkorswim and get used to the platform but it seems to be a good platform and has great reviews. Also how do I get your newsletter?
Looks like NEW and FMT are about to get pounded today. I know that you think it is chasing the story and for the most part agree. I would be available for lunch to share some ideas on this as well as get some ideas from you on trading the technical side.
Give me a buzz on my cell at 949-554-4150 and we can set up meeting for lunch. My newsletter best supports my Bond Trading Service, so it may or may not be for you. I will bring a copy of it when we hook up for lunch and you can check it out. Also, you can go to my web site at www.iamafuturestrader.com and read an excerpt from one of the issues there to also give you a feel for what is in them.
I use Genesis and Trade Station for software, and use Trade Station for trading. I do not recommend Trade Station, it is way to easy to make errors with them if you have multiple accounts, which I do. I am probably going to switch away from them soon to Interactive Brokers. IB has awful customer service, but the best platform going.
I also have an account at Robbins just for their trading contest only. I came in third last year. www.robbinstrading.com. I entered that just to prove with real money that my trading service works.
My escrow closes on the 24th of this month, I am buying back in close to 900k lower than where I exited at the end of 2005, so I have accomplished my goal. Amazing how these clowns claim this could not possibly be, yet I offered to show proof and got nothing but crickets in response. Most of them are phonies IMO. Troy is obviously a young kid with no money just having fun typing on the internet and using a few different names. I do think prices will continue down in RE, but not crash.
You may be right about the lenders, I can explain more fully to you why I did not short them at this juncture when we meet. I did some business with a few lenders in a side business that I am involved with that has nothing to do with RE. About a year and a half ago, Ameriquest shut down all of their expansion, and I suspected this was going to happen to all of them. NEW appears to be going out of business and they just leased a huge amount of space over at Park Place last year.
I took your number down and I will try to give you a call today. I just have to deal with my company's tech support and after that I should be able to give you a call. My real name is Rik. When we do get together for lunch I will bring my laptop and you can checkout thinkorswim. I have heard the same thing about IB and the bad customer service.
I can't remember the name of the owner of Ameriquest/ACC but he is more in touch with reality than most. He also understands which employees bring the most money in for the least amount of cost.
I will check out your website and the robbinstrading too.
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