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Sunday, November 25, 2007

What is this mess?

I realize that this chart has a ton of clutter on it. Rarely a day goes by that I do not have another idea for finding the Grail for timing short term lows. Alas, none of the ideas ever pan out as anything other than another tool. I have several things displayed here which are all telling us the same thing, there is a good probability that a short term low is being formed here.

Notice the very large difference between new lows and new highs. This is extended to an extreme level, similar to what has often been the case at major lows in the past. The Advances vs Declines is also at a very low level. If we couple this with the seasonal tendency for a low point, we have the makings of a possible starting point for a good move upward. The pundits would have us believe these readings are very bearish and indicate further weakness and perhaps a crash. I like to fade the market at these times. Not every trade will be a win, but the majority of them will be in these instances. We are already long the S&P from Fridays open, so we have already placed our bets on this.

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