Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Going back a couple of days you can see where I had stated that I thought there was a high probability of a short term low being formed. Obviously now that we are 600 points higher on the Dow, that call was correct.

I went "ALL IN" at the close of Monday in most of my accounts. One in particular is a retirement account that does not like market timing. I can't wait for the conversation scolding me for this move. It was "lucky" to have bought the low close, but sometimes you get lucky when you know what to look at.

It is too early to tell if this will be a major low, but what appears to be happening is that what began as short covering is picking up some new buying which could propel this sharply upward. That is conjecture, but this is the time of the year in general when you want to be long stocks to take advantage of the seasonal bias to the long side. The bottom line is that lower rates are good for stocks, and that is the environment we have. As a result, when you get dips during low rate periods, you need to be looking at buying stocks.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

What is this mess?

I realize that this chart has a ton of clutter on it. Rarely a day goes by that I do not have another idea for finding the Grail for timing short term lows. Alas, none of the ideas ever pan out as anything other than another tool. I have several things displayed here which are all telling us the same thing, there is a good probability that a short term low is being formed here.

Notice the very large difference between new lows and new highs. This is extended to an extreme level, similar to what has often been the case at major lows in the past. The Advances vs Declines is also at a very low level. If we couple this with the seasonal tendency for a low point, we have the makings of a possible starting point for a good move upward. The pundits would have us believe these readings are very bearish and indicate further weakness and perhaps a crash. I like to fade the market at these times. Not every trade will be a win, but the majority of them will be in these instances. We are already long the S&P from Fridays open, so we have already placed our bets on this.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Here is the summary of the Gold trade we just exited in the trading service. The initial entry, and an add on entry above it are marked with horizontal red lines and an S for each of them. Our exit was a bit lucky in that we exited on a limit right before the market zoomed up today. The add on entry was not in the service, that was something I did in my own trading only. Was this luck?

Keep in mind that although the fundamentals the way I look at them are bearish, but we had reached a short term oversold area, in what is still a long term uptrend, so it was prudent to take some profits. It may not look like much due to the scaling of this chart, but this was a profit of $3270/contract on the initial, and $4270 on the add on, so a substantial gain overall.

The big picture plan here is to wait for a pullback and re-enter the short side if the fundamentals are still bearish at the time it occurs, then try and ride down what could be a very big move. It is possible that pullback does not occur, but based on the relative valuation compared to the dollar at the moment, I think it will.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Is this the low?

That is impossible to know. As I had stated previously, I was legging into the stocks I wanted to own on this dip, and bought fully into 2 of the 5 yesterday when they were down on the session. Both exploded upwards, and would have been incredible day trades. However, I plan on holding these longs for awhile.

I had been of the opinion that had we had one more significant down day, this could have been the low, as many of the oversold indicators were about one day away from being in a perfect zone for buying. The market rarely accomodates our plans perfectly, which is both the beauty and the frustration of trading.

As you can see on this chart, the S&P short term timing system has been on a fantastic run, getting us long very early yesterday and enabling us to cash in on the big up day. Since those signals are also now on my trading service, they will not be posted live here.

I do think it is too early to call this the low and celebrate, but I do have a substantial long side position that I will look to lighten up into years end if we rally, and add it back on during what I think might be a first quarter decline. The cycles still favor a December low point, and the announcements this am that the worst of the subprime fallouts are behind us, seem difficult to believe. All it will take is another scare there, and poof, 500 points can come off the Dow instantly.

Monday, November 12, 2007

When you build the perfect storm, there can be no surprise when it hits, the phrase on the chart is from FIELD OF DREAMS.

I had been telling people a huge drop would come out of the blue in this GOLD market, and it has happened. How did I know this? The commercials have been heavily short, the most in history. This huge run up has been driven by speculators and not insiders. When this happens, often the rug is pulled out of the blue like this. In a situation like this we could see $100 drop or more in a very short period, because of panic selling by the small individuals who now realize they have once again been sold a bill of goods.

I have no idea if we will get a drop of that magnitude, just that it could very easily happen because the fundamentals favor it. You do not have real insiders buying at this point to help prop up a drop. The ideal seasonal high is due in January, but when you get conditions like this, you have to act when they develop. Things do not always line up perfectly with the seasonals.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Is this sideways move a bottom in progress, and time to hop aboard?

I have currently been legging in to partial positions in the stocks I have identified as undervalued/bargain material. I still think we will work along the red line sideways to down for a month or two more, then launch upwards.

However, I did not want to get caught at the station in case the train left early, so I put some money to work. You never can be sure what will happen, so I put about 40% in. Hopefully, I can average down into full positions in the next 30 to 60 days at lower prices.

Of course if I happen to get a sell signal in the mean time, I will exit everything. There does not appear to be a sell in sight at this point with my timing system.