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Wednesday, September 09, 2009





Here is my nemesis market for this year, I have been wrong one time after another here. Although I am going to blame one of my mentors for this who has been bullish all year and just been way off.



Ultimately it falls upon us as individuals to be responsible for what we do, although the trend in society is certainly to blame everyone else and not yourself. I am a throw back, so I admit to being just awful here and I should have seen my errors on my own before now.



How did I blow this? Mostly as you can see there was heavy commercial buying all the way down here during this cliff dive. I know that in general that is bullish, but also that commercials hedge quite a bit, so when you see it in a strong downtrend, it does not mean nearly as much as when it is in an uptrend. This is where my error was made. Once the pivots were taken out, the uptrend was over and I should have been looking for commercial selling for shorts.



As you can see, we have gotten that in the last two weeks, and bingo a big decline. If the dollar does not stabilize here, the whole deflation scenario goes out the window. Just by watching the markets as a whole we do not quite have the plethora of uptrends in commodities to make me overly worried yet about inflation, but it could be a matter of time.



On a side note, if anyone who reads this has any political influence, I would love to see them stir up something on the PPT. What they are doing now is just so outrageous that they are ruining the markets. Markets need to be allowed to function normally, just forcing them in only one direction to support an Intern who gives a speech every day on something is just beyond anything I ever thought I would see. It is also an abuse of the PPT's original intention when it was formed. They were supposed to support huge plunges, not further political agendas on a daily basis.



So what if the market happens to go down on a day health care is discussed. That does not mean anything. They need to quit trying to manipulate every thought people have for gods sake. Maybe people don't like certain ideas because they are lousy, and those ideas should be modified. Have we entered a phase where a group of political insiders are going to tell us every thought we should have?

2 comments:

Thomas Carolan said...

Your level of self awareness and willingness to admit mistakes is rare these days. I enjoy your blog, even when you're wrong.

Chris Johnston said...

Thanks, just way too much BS nowadays. My correctness is measured in my account balances in my trading accounts. That is the beauty of trading, there is no escaping facing up to it.

Darn, I wish I had been better in this market, I really blew this! Alot of money could have been made here.