House keeping first:
1) I hope anyone who is a short term trader took that Silver trade entry from a few days ago.
2) The final numbers from the COT report do support the Friday post with one exception, the sentiment was not as bullish. However, the sharp spike down in the Commercials position is confirmed, hence this sell setup is in place.
Here is a market that seems setup to fall, the Australian Dollar.
Notice in the graph with the red line the huge commercial selling we are getting and have been for the last few months. Combine this with what is now a very heavy long position by the large specs, the black line in the same graph. Notice how they are now at the same amount of longs as they were when the high was made last year and how much lower the price is. Also, the commercials are at the same level of shorts that they were at that same peak.
Neither of these positions are at historical high or low levels yet so it is possible more room to run could be at hand. It is typical for comms to fade trends as they are hedgers by nature. As a result, you can not just go out and sell the minute you see something like this. Had you done that a couple of month back you would have been clobberred.
What this does tell you is too look for entry patterns now that support this fundamental setup. It certainly would be better if we had this picture without as large of a rally as we have had, but you can't always have everything perfect. In face my experience has been when everything is perfect, I lose money on the trades!