Fitty Cent

An annoying talent less punk who " sings" but also possibly our currency.

As I post this the dollar is close to making new lows again in this bear market it has been in. As you can see from the chart, we are entering a seasonal up period on average, yet we have a big down trend, and also many oscillator readings are also bearish.

Once again I will state that it is my view the stock market is driving this down and not vice versa. Tonight we get the "bullish" earnings report, then the dollar declines. That is the sequence we have at hand. When you watch the markets tick by tick, the SP 500 always moves first, then there is a hesitation by the dollar, as if to say, are you sure you are going there. Once the dollar seems content with the SP move, it then moves in the opposite direction

At the end of the day, it might very well be that the government is pushing this rally ultimately to lower the dollar. A dollar decline is really the only way out of Barry's policies that won't ruin us for 50 years. However, I still maintain that the way to bet against Barry and his attempt to really fundamentally change this country, is to be long the dollar. A bet on the US is a bet on the dollar. Now, with that being said, timing is something else entirely. I really think that no one man can really ruin this country either by intention or accident. So the long term bet is on us, but I am a trader and there is no way that I can see to bet against him in a big way just yet.

It won't do me or anyone else any good to just buy into this meltdown blindly, just because I have a certain bigger picture view. We have retraced such a large percentage of the up move off the lows from years back, that a full retracement is now probably likely. I did take a swing at it the other day as discussed in here. I will also look for other entries. It could very well be that the real entry is a long ways away, we can never know the future. For now the trend is solidly down, so I will require a perfect setup to try again. I trade mechanically so I will take the setups when they come, but will filter them to some degree in this market until something changes.

This is the short squeeze of all time waiting to happen just like GOLD is a knife down in the making. Timing those moves though is the whole ball of wax, because they are both very strongly moving opposite of where I think they are ultimately going.