First of all let me summarize where I stand on several things that have been posted here recently. I just got a comment on my current position on Gold. Bigger picture as I have stated over and over again, I think this fall when it is done, will be bigger than the real estate fall. I have maintained that positon now for a few months and still see no reason why we will not go down to $600 or so, maybe lower. This was the greatest hype job of all time, and I have layed out graphically over and over in here for regular readers the reasons for that view point. This will be looked back upon historically as something to study as another bubble bursting.
On a shorter term basis I was looking for a possible bounce due to recent small commercial short covering, and we were in a possible weekly chart support point. Today appears to have blown that out, but it still could be a short term buying spot. Remember, Gold is trading with stocks, so if you think stocks will decline, do not be long Gold. The next leg in the deflation wave is underway and I think it has quite a ways to go.
Don't get cute with that, this market is just beginning it's large decline. If you have been a long term holder and did not get out, look in the mirror and you will see a greedy person looking back at you. You had tremendous once in a lifetime gains, for you to think they would double again was foolish, or at the very least, a low probability play. I guess if you refuse to believe what you see and still think 3k, buy into the decline. I would not touch the long side other than for a very short term trade, and that is not setup yet.
Today's wipeout tells us that the trend is down for now and in front of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report, was a surpise. The weekly claims showed a higher number than expected, it will be very interesting to see what they tell us tomorrow, and what the revision to the prior one will be. I am mixed here, I expect a lie, but it may be tough for them to get too carried away after this weekly number today. Should be good for comedy. I am sure the one liberal CNBC always has on will tell us again how well all their plans are working, the in Barry we trust skit. He will do this regardless of the number. I wrote I was looking for 2 or 3 days up then another leg down, so that was what we have gotten. No reason yet too buy into this decline even though we do have commercials buying it so far. There have been no patterns that I use saying to buy yet, even though the big boys are showing increasing bullishness. I did state and it is in the archives, that I thought this was going to be a time when the commercials quick flip to bullishness was going to be incorrect and that it is a troubling pattern when that happens.
Now that those lows they bought into have gone, that can be argued to be a failure and a sell signal. Lets go to two markets I recently posted trades coming for, Bonds and Sugar. First, Bonds. I had a nice one day gain yesterday on my short, but when the stock decline showed up today that trade had no chance. I tightened my stop to above yesterdays high, and got hit for a 10/32 loss, no big deal that is peanuts. I love losing small!!!
Next is the Sugar trade which is working out well so far.
This chart is black so sorry, I have several different data feeds for redundancy and have them formatted differently in each one. If you click on it you can enlarge it and see it better. You can see this trade has a nice current profit in it, with a target well below. Will it hit it, who knows.
I do have a few other things cooking but do not always post every trade I make here. Tomorrow could be very interesting. We have alot of divergence, so a reversal of today could happen. Might be best to stand aside at least until the dust settles after the report.