Here is a snapshot of the Russell 2000 which in my view from a very short term standpoint, is the weakest of the three major stock indexes. Of course weak is a relative term as all three of them are in very strong uptrends. I say it is the weakest relative to the others because on the last small retracement it declined more than the others. Also the momentum oscillators are diverging more here than they are in the Naz and SP.
What this means is that if I short the indexes here for a quick move down, this is where I will play. The fact that we had an inside bar followed by an outside bar followed by a reversal bar up, tells me we are at a short term indecision point here. A very small breakout type of situation. My wish list has on it the following. First a move up the next day or two. Second, that move makes a new high with the accum/distribution oscillators not doing so. Third, if the second does not happen, then a move up that fails the high and keeps the GOOD DOWNDTREND situation with momenum oscillator number 2 at the bottom still intact as a downtrend.
Due to the quarterly ending period here, I think we will maintain strength the next few days. We all know that the window dressing "rules" discourage these markups at month ends. However it does not seem to stop them. In addition, the PPT hardly follows any rules. The F... you I won campaign with the government is in full effect even for blind folks now, so there is no reason why they won't give this a friendly nudge with a futures buy program or two if it needs help.
One comment I want to make as to why I have taken the last few days off this month from trading. I try and run my trading business just like any other business. By that I mean setting goals and trying to knock them down one at a time. This business is like no other, so we can not always fit things nicely into a clean little business plan. However, just blindly sailing along with no business sense of what you are doing also makes no sense at all. One of my main goals with to on average double all of my accounts this year. Of course some will go up more than others, but I am talking about just across the board on average get a 100% return. If I am able to do that it will be a good amount of money in total income. I am hesitant to state the exact number just because you never know who is reading what on the internet nowadays. As a result it is best I keep that to myself. For all I know Barry's thugs would come after me if it was an amount they thought someone else other than me might be more deserving of. When I had this recent run it got me back ahead of that plan in a few accounts where I had been behind schedule, so I felt it was a good business decision to end the first quarter ahead of schedule and pat myself on the back.
It is easy to get carried away with yourself when you have good runs in the market. For me, for whatever reason, when I am up big in the middle of months I tend to get sloppy and give some back towards month ends. I am one of the most disciplined people any of you would ever meet, so this makes absolutely no sense at all. Yet, it happens time and time again. As a result, this month I decided to kick back after my big equity run and just monitor what I would have done. Sure enough a couple of the trades I would have likely done would have lost, and I would have given a little back once again.
This does not seem to happen when I am having a lousy month, I tend to be able to save them at the end. I know this makes no sense at all, but it is what it is. Until I can figure out why I have these tendencies, this is how I am going to play it and for this month it has saved me from giving back about 5k of the profits. So far so good. Anyway, what you get from me is what I am thinking at the time I do these posts, so here it is.