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Thursday, January 13, 2011

PARTY POOPER


The crop report came out for the Grains yesterday and most of them flew the coop except this one. Wheat did rise, but you can see it is lagging considerably and is setup as a sell now. It does look to me like if we break today's low tomorrow, a short entry can be taken here. The overall markets are elevating again, and the sell signal I mentioned yesterday in the SP 500 is not going to trigger today. However, this is one market that has been able to trade on it's own merits anyway. Although it is not good logic, being aware of the stock market no matter what you are trading has become imperative. It is good to see that there is some sanity left in this wacky financial world we are living in.

Bean Oil is also lagging the complex somewhat but not as much as this one market is. I may do some of each, not sure yet. The Bond market is also making another rally attempt today. This has been a frustrating market. I have been looking for an up move, so have many of my associates, and I have taken a couple of small losses trying to catch one. I am trying again today, so maybe the third time is the charm?




I actually played the 10 year because it is my opinion this market has held up better and has a stronger market structure than the 30 year. You can see we have had 4 higher short term lows in this market and are attempting to break out again. Will we? That is why they turn on the machines every day, nobody knows.

It does appear that overall many of the potential sell signals in commodities have been negated in the last few days with the Dollar wipe out that has happened. As a result, many of the trades I was sitting on waiting for are not going to develop. Crude in particular has now negated it's sell pattern due to it's recent strength. Maybe we are just going to get another lift off here. The metals are lagging somewhat but it is not a great sell pattern there either, and it is doubtful we will get a significant break there without some stock market decline which does not seem to be in the offing.

Other than the above I do not see a whole lot. The long Pound trade is one I got in but got out too early as it is exploding to the upside right now.

Good trading to everyone sorry I am brief today

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why did you enter at that point ?

Chris Johnston said...

breakout of the prior days high

Anonymous said...

Hi Chris,

thank you for the reply.
What is so special about that bar,
that breaking it's high would constitute a signal ?

thanks in advance
A fan

Chris Johnston said...

Nothing special really just the taking out of a prior high shows short term strength and movement in the direction I was looking to enter. I want at least a prior's high to go or more to get in when going long and the reverse when going short.

Anonymous said...

Hi Chris,

thank you for the reply.

In that case we can have signals all over the place (i.e. whenever a high is taken), even within the context of a setup market

thanks in advance

Chris Johnston said...

Well I suppose that is true, but it is all a matter of individual approaches. For me the last step in entering a trade is getting a bar pattern to tie in with the setup. It can be as simple as just a high or low break, but I won't just enter above any high or low. In this case that bar met my rules, so I went in there. If you study bar patterns for years as I have there are some you want to avoid just entering at highs or lows and that is beyond the scope of what I discuss here.