TIME TO GO ON THE RECORD, OUT ON A LIMB

I ought to know better after being a trader for 25 years, but apparently I have not learned my lesson yet. I have been looking for something that tells me "we are here" with the GOLD market. I have for the last year or so warned people, incorrectly so, of the coming debacle in this market. I have sat by and watched small investors drive the greatest bull run ever. We had 10 consecutive years of gains, unprecedented in any commodity market. So of course the pundits tell you that is the time to buy. Really? Does that really make any sense to anyone with no bias at stake? Wait for the greatest upward gain ever to take place, then go in and buy once it has taken place!

I get these emails from this one advisory service from Porter Stansberry, who by and large seems to have decent research at times. I think their track record from what I can see is pretty good but I have not studied it that closely. However, they also occasionally fall victim to these "secret" videos that almost have a witness protection feel to them. I notice a trend in these types of things beginning to start. The tip off to me is it is always some person wanting to keep their identity secret, and the most annoying part is it features a power point presentation that is read to you. One of the most annoying things is having a sales person put something in front of you then read it to you as if you can't read it yourself. Here is the link. I suppose if you like what you hear, subsribe or buy whatever they pitch at the end.

http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1012WEBMESVD/WDIG1/PR?o=255231&s=257937&u=50904184&l=209306&r=Milo

I have to admit that I lost my patience trying to hear this guy out. What is always the case is a sales pitch at the end to buy something and they try to lure you in with all this intrigue about a mysterious guru or insider. It is almost a polished version of the gambling services that always feature some character with a strong New York accent, crowing about his incredible track record. I heard on the radio yesterday a discussion of these services, and a few different people called in saying they used to work for these places. What the plan was with callers who called them is for every 10,000 calls they got, half the people would be told to pick one team and half the other. This way they were guaranteed 5,000 call backs the next week. Of course yet another marvelous scam.

The point of all of this is, do your own research. Do not act on what people like me or any secret guru who hides in a cave in Afghanistan say to do. If you choose to act on others research, find people with provable track records. Real accounts with real money traded, and real results. I have that and will have it going forward in our advisory business. This guarantees nothing at all. However, what it does give you is a general sense of whether your "advisor" has actually every hit a ball out of the infield. It is impossible for someone to show you how to do something they themselves cannot do. This nonsense about some secret guru, is just that, nonsense. If you can make it through the above video, let me know what the punch line at the end is. I would be willing to bet without having any knowledge of the end, that it tells you to buy GOLD. This leads me to why I am now going on the record.

GOLD IS GOING TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT HIGH IN THE NEXT MONTH

Just to be clear on what I mean by this. I am not saying we will make a higher high than what is on the daily charts now, although we could. My prediction here is that within the next month or less, we are going to begin to move down a good amount in this market. As per what I always do, I will be looking to trade in the direction of these comments, but will also wait for my signals on a daily chart to develop. I may or may not post all the trades here. As I move back into the advisory business I have to be a little more careful about that going forward.

I am likening this video to the infamous, Nasdaq 10k Wall Street Journal story that marked the end of the Internet bubble. I think when I take this in context with the fact that we have had the largest number of consecutive up years in a commodity market ever right at the time this comes out, that tells me we have a significant top forming. I am not saying this will necessarily be the end of the run. What I am saying is that we are going to have a multi-month decline here that will be a good money making opportunity. If it turns into more than that it will be obvious as it unfolds.

THE DOLLAR IS GETTING KILLED, IS IT REALLY?

From listening to the pundits you would certainly expect to see a different picture than this I would think. The Dollar Index is almost exactly at the same price as it was one year ago as shown on this chart. This is part of the core argument of most of the GOLD bugs. The Dollar is going to get wiped out and no longer be the world's reserve currency making commodities sky rocket due to inflation. Will it get killed from here? Perhaps, I have no idea. The point is that be careful when some "expert" tells you Gold or anything else, has to rally because the dollar is getting killed. It is not. It has come down, but that has already occurred and is now going sideways.

Anyway, there it is my call and I will eat crow if I am wrong. I have gone over other reasons in prior posts including the COT picture here, which is also part of why I am coming out here and calling for this move. I was wrong last year for the record in making a call like this and unlike many others admitted to being wrong. Why should anyone heed my advice this time? Good question, maybe you shouldn't, but there it is.