CLOSE OUTS

Here is the completion of the Soybean Meal trade I discussed the other day, the price hit my target. I expect a bounce here somewhere for another short entry, but who knows if we will get one. If we do I will be looking for another short entry. The line gone haywire is the POIV ( purple line ). I have no explanation as to what has happened with this in the last 3 months, it has just been awful, yet has been so good for so long prior to recent periods. Here you can see this line just tanking, might be time to just take this off the charts. It could be that the open interest portion of this is not being reported correctly and that is what is causing this, but I have no proof of that. You would think this was going to zero based on the way this looks.

This is the Dollar Index trade, which I also mentioned along the with Euro ( short ) that I also had on that was exited. Here we just had 3 consecutive unconvincing bars and my read on my indicators was that they appeared to be telling me we would retrace to setup another entry. That was a discretionary call so I have to live with the results. What I did not like is the fact that this and the SP 500 rose in tandem 3 days in a row, unheard of in the recent times. Since I know the FED is manipulating the SP 500 furiously right now, almost on a hourly basis, I reasoned it was likely this would be the one that would give. Completely off the reservation in terms of logic, but the decision is made and now I will wait.

I would sure like to see a sell signal of some type in the SP 500 to get really excited about Dollar strength. I just do not see one in the near term setting up. I did come across something today that was very interesting which was a commentary on P/E levels and that they had only been this high 3 prior times in history, 1929, 2000, 2008. This is based on the 10 year average of the SP 500 P/E ratio being at 24. This is another somewhat dire reading that tells us how extended in price we are once again. I know I keep harping on this but this stuff does matter. I would not commit new money to this market right now in spite of how incredible it looks. You have to stay disciplined, and it is not easy right now with almost 65% of the days being up closes. It almost feels like you are the only person not making a killing. Believe me once this turns, you will be glad you were not all in. This will turn on a dime when it does.

I am looking at shorting this small rally in the Bond Market tomorrow depending on how things play out. I have to be brief today since I am short on time.