JUST CHECKED WITH AN OLD FRIEND AND LOOK WHAT I FOUND
In the "Good Ole" days when a 5 minute chart was what I was glued to all day long, one of my favorite tools was the $TICK symbol. I don't really feel like explaining what this symbol is. I assume that readers of this blog have some trading knowledge, and therefore know what this is. Looking for divergences in this which corresponded with entry signals, often formed very powerful trade setups. I decided to check in with my old friend to see if he would have been any help during this recent run. As you can see during this above snapshot of several days, there are only 2 readings of either + or - 1000. This is incredibly unusual. In the days I used to watch this index, often multiple times in a day you would see these levels exceeded. We have to go back decades to find times like this. Net net, he would not have been of much help.
This just confirms what we already know, there is very little volatility in this market right now. The low VIX readings also tells us the same thing. The old adage of never shorting a dull market has certainly been wise advice here. This is about as dull a market intraday as you can have. I did find it very interesting to say the least, that even with this incredible up bias, we did not reach the + 1000 level. Institutional buy programs typically drive the tick readings past 1000. What this tells us is that for the most part, institutions are not initiating buy programs. For the conspiracy theorists this ought to raise a few eyebrows. That has been standard protocol for a very long time, now it is not. Hmmmmm......
I have my feelings about what this means and why this is the case, but they are purely opinions, not based on any facts I can present, so I am keeping them to myself for now. I think when we look back 10 or more years from now at this time, someone will break the story of what really went on behind the scenes. I think that story will be one of the most shocking stories ever broken when it happens. It could also be why it won't ever leak out. Time will tell.
As I have used a few genesis tools to project future price likelihood here, almost all of them are telling me the same thing. This appears destined to continue here for awhile. New all time highs would not surprise me at all. If a big inflation wave is upon us, the DOW could go to 20K for all I know. There just are no sell signals in my tools developing here, no buys either, so I am flat in the indexes. My tools don't generate signals during blow off runs where 80% of the days are up closes, so be it. The next chart is something that could give us some insight as to what might happen. This is about the only thing I have found that indicates we could decline from here.
This shows the percentage above the 200 day moving average we are, and it is currently a little over 13%. You can see it is by far the furthest above this average we have been. I am not a huge fan of this type of thing but it is literally the only thing I can see that indicates any chance of a pullback. We have a runaway bull market here, and you would expect this type of thing to be happening here. Also, 13% by historical standards, is not really that much. I just threw this out for fun.
We do seem to be having some separation from the stock market finally in other markets, with Crude being very weak, and also the grain complexes seemingly in some difficulty at the moment. I am still watching the DX for a long, the Euro for a short and the Bonds for a short. The first two probably have to turn in the next day or the setup is going to be gone. Bonds I am still debating. My dilemma there is that the Notes are weaker hence where I want to sell, but the Bonds are where the sell signal is. It is not a perfect world is it?
It is perfect in the stock market though right now. My comedy career based on my one joke is alive and well.
I will say it again just to get more laughs, " The Dow will have a lower close one day than the prior day."