HARD TO BELIEVE
I guess I am too "young" to remember times like this. When I listen to speeches tonight from Barry and Boehner, it just amazes me along a couple of fronts. First, why in the world doesn't someone come right out and say why Barry is lying about the Social Security Fund. Doesn't anyone remember the lock box skits on Saturday night live when W and Gore were fighting it out. That money is separate for god's sake. How in the world can this cat just come out and lie right to the public over and over about this and not take any heat?
Then I heard several wackos like Katie Couric comparing him to Reagan today on the radio. This is not even aggravating because I just could not stop laughing. Even with all the referees and writers fixing the game for him he still can't do the right thing. President crybaby like Hannity calls him is just too perfect of a nickname. How in the world can a president oppose balancing the budget? I still think the best strategy is like what Green Bay did in the Super Bowl once, where you just let the other team score a touchdown on the next play to preserve time on the clock to try and score at the end yourself. Roll over, let em win, spend us off the planet. Then we can all get short and make millions as they take the Dow down to 2000. Then we can rebuild this thing on a sustainable model, and the world in the long run would be much better off. Aah what it is like to dream sometimes. We will call it the "I told you so campaign, and by the way F U we won this time." Even if I had to pay 60% tax, I would pay it take my millions I had left and leave.
"It is time everyone paid their fair share," does that mean that the 50% of the people who pay nothing are now going to pay some income tax? Or how about the ones who pay nothing and also get money back in a subsidy for a net plus, that is one of my favorite plays of all time. Talk about an "and one" as they call it in the NBA when you get fouled, get the hoop and a free throw. That is an and one on steroids.
With all this going on I still have not shorted the Bernanke 2000, but I should be short. There is just something really nagging at me about this short, and rarely does this happen. This trade could very well leave the station without me, but a few of the nit picking things I use to stay out of trouble are telling me to wait on this one. At times they leave me holding the bag while a train leaves the station. I just do not trust a random market spike with all of this nonsense in Washington going on. I also do not like how strong the Bernanke 100 formerly knows as the Naz is. In general I would want that to be leading to the downside as techs often lead big moves. Also, even though the Bond market is bullish fundamentally, the price action is crappy there. It is beginning to look now like a bounce there could be a short on a daily chart. Net net I have conflicting things that are just bothering me here. We can see on the chart above that we are not quite into the sell zone on my COT Synthetic. There is a line where we have had some good selling points recently, and we are a day or two away from that. I would still take the trade if it was perfect and not worry about the political BS, but it is not perfectly setup and I am not going to force a marginal trade here.
It does still appear to me as I write this Monday night for Tuesday, the both Crude and the ES are intraday sells on rallies. Copper also appears to be a day away from being a good sell setup. Gold has a potential trap sell pattern in it, but it is not confirmed by what I use to do that, also it is the strongest metal. I never short the strongest member of a sector, ever. Cotton also is beginning to interest me on the long side here even though it is going straight down at the moment. There are some divergences now starting to develop there.
Sorry I don't have more, when you post every day sometimes there is just not anything that compelling to talk about for market setups. They are basically the same as they were the day before.