I have decided to start a new company, I am going to call it Profile Airlines. My main theme is going to be I am going to profile all passengers in the screening process to make sure no terrorists get on any of the flights. I guess since liberals want terrorists on planes with them, I will be mostly serving conservative leaning people. Even though this above picture is funny, these will not really be my pilots, I will run the airline cleanly paying top money for the best people. There will not be a union. I will pay my employees well because of merit not because of some pre-arranged extortion agreement with a union ( a collective bargaining agreement )designed by them to milk all the money out of the company so they can come to work drunk and not be fired. My bet is this will be the safest most profitable airline on earth within a decade, and will also have the happiest employees.
How do you like them apples?
Sometimes you have call people on stupidity, and we just are not doing enough of that in this world which is why we have gotten into such a bad spot. The inmates are running the asylum at this point. I hear these people complain about profiling on airlines, when was the last time someone who looked like me blew up something? NEVVVER, Hello.... I wish I could have a choice of screening procedures with airlines and let these chumps who want to take the risk so we don't make people feel bad, go on planes without diligent screening like we have now, while I go on an airline that is doing the right thing. They can fly on the feel good planes that blow up, I will fly on the others that are safe. It is the same way with the financial markets. My post on Sunday saying that trouble was brewing had to have been laughed at by some who read it. How in the world could you say that we were right at multi year highs?
I say what I feel needs to be said just like in the above example about airport screening, I don't care if it is popular, I am not running for office. It was clear to me we were going down yesterday based on what I said. I did not know that also overnight we were going to drop as far as we did, but we never know that in advance. I also put real money behind my calls unlike these "economists" who can miss a NFP payroll pre-call by 100k and not lose a cent. From what I am looking at now, it appears to me a bounce now is a very good shorting opportunity. We will have to see if one takes place how it is playing out to determine if we should short it, but it appears now the way my indicators look, it should be a good opportunity. Be prepared as always to be against the grain when it comes.
I mentioned I was long the Grains, I bailed out of those trades last night taking some money, but not as much as I hoped. Soybean Oil is where I had my biggest long position.
I really thought I was in business after the first day in this thing, but it became what I call a one day wonder. That is a huge range the first day then fizzles out. Just like Tom Skerritt said in top gun, "if you stay in this long enough things like this happen." Obviously since I have a term for this type of thing it has happened before. What was unusual about this trade was that I scrolled the grains to determine which one I thought was the strongest and this was the one I chose, and was rewarded with the big day right off the bat. The other bean complex markets did not move as much the first day. However, after that there must have been some spreading activity where people were buying meal and beans and selling bean oil, since it because the relative weakling right after this day. Once I saw that happen I just put some limit orders in last night and got out pretty good, above where it is. All told the trade only made about 5k, I gave back alot of what was in it the first day when it was up about 12k. However, there was no way to know this was going to start chopping, and you can't just get out the first good day you have every time, you will be cutting off too many big wins that way. It is a judgement call on the exit in the end and the above judgement is what I did so onward. For all I know it keeps going up but it has already retraced enough where my trailing stop would have been hit and I would have been out at a lower price, so no regrets. Maybe the grains will setup buys again you just never know.
The next chart is Natural Gas, a market I have been looking for a long in the last 2 days and it may have left the station without me. It just has not met all my rules yet which is why I am not long.
There is nothing fancy here it is just into some support and a few other things I watch have turned up. I am flat now but looking for a bounce for a few days to get short the Bernanke's. In the mean time I will work on my new airline and hope we get a shortable bounce in the indexes!