As I size up this roster the first thought that comes to mind is whether any of them got short Friday knowing they would not come to an agreement before today. At least one of these people is among those rumored to have done quite well trading off insider information. Of course as we have learned insider trading rules don't apply to government officials apparently. It is likely that this lack of a deal did drive the market down today as much as I hate to admit that. However, you really have to be a fool to think that they were ever going to make a deal. This was setup from the beginning to fail, so I really don't see it as a surprise. The trend in the market is still down on all time frames the way I see it, and again surprises generally come in the direction of the trend.
I really have no idea what will come of the political situation that is at hand, but from the recent things that have happened my current thought is I might be done as a voter in this country. The insider trading allegations disgust me so thoroughly, that I feel like if I vote now I am just condoning it all. What if the whole electorate just refused to even participate? As much as I am conservative, I am not sure one side is much better than the other will all the crap that goes on. I do think as they bring the house down, they are going to ultimately provide us with more great shorting opportunities so part of me wants them to just keep doing what they are doing. The other strategy which I have considered is getting everyone to vote democrat, then just short everything as they turn us into Greece and make everything crash. Mixed emotions I guess in summary.
I was also told by a friend that Buffett had a tax battle going on with the IRS, and I was surprised to find out that is actually true. It is amazing how this has been kept out of the media isn't it? I can't tell you how much I want to make a big killing shorting his stock at some point. I will have to choose that time wisely. He may be a huge hypocrite, but he is also an incredible businessman. It is on my bucket list to make a million shorting Berkshire at some point because of this ....... who runs it.
As we saw today, there was a late rally in the stock market which pared some of the damage. This is what I predicted in my last post. I think the PPT will be able to lift the market during the next several weeks due to light volume. I did start buying some SPY's today trying to leg into a position to hold through the end of the year. I will add some more tomorrow if we go down again. I do not have any short term buy signals, so this is a different type of trade and might require me to take some heat in the process.
Here is another market that I think is setup nicely, Coffee.
I am not sure this is a bet the farm trade, but there is a nice seasonal low due, and a pretty clean trend line containing prices coming in just above the current action. Once again, the COT indicator is not on board here actually with the last indication being a sell. As I have said I really have no idea if that indicator is worth anything at all. I rarely trade using it, but it is on the chart so I thought I would mention it to head off the questions about that up front. This appears to be a trade worth doing if we do get going on the upside out of this formation.
As far as the rest of the week goes, here is a table that shows buying the SP 500 x number of days before the holiday and selling the day after. As you can see all days from 1 to 5 days before the holiday show a net profit, so the bias is upward pretty clearly here. The percentages are not super high, but the average trades are very good. What that tells us is in general we move up and when we do it is a lot more than when we move down. I would never trade off just this alone, but it does show a pretty decent bias. You are going to have to click on this to enlarge it, this capture did not come out too well.
I am looking up as you know this week, so 0 for 1 so far since today obviously closed lower.
I don't see any other imminent setups for tomorrow other than a marginal short in the ten year notes which is not one I am going to play.