NOT MUCH TO ADD OTHER THAN TO TALK ABOUT ANOTHER BLUNDER
Overall after that huge explosive day up Monday what I expect to happen now is back and filling for a day or two. My short term indicators could flash a buy signal in a few days if this happens. Also, I had been discussing Cattle as a sell, but it looks like to me based on my short term stuff, that it is more bullish than bearish on a daily chart. As a result, that trade is off the board for me for the moment. However, wait a day and the world can change so you just never know. Like they say in Ireland, if you don't like the weather, hang on a minute.
Now to the point of the post, a blunder by yours truly, probably because I was trying to force a trade. Bad things always happen when I do this. The chart above is of the Swiss Franc, which did one of the those trap patterns I love, where it broke to a new low then immediately reversed the very next day. I saw that and based on all the currencies being more in buy mode than sell mode, I went long when I saw this. I did buy it on a pullback fortunately, about 60 points under what the real entry point should have been. As I watched it trade the first day and kind of stall, I went and started looking at the other currencies, which were soaring. I noticed this struggle to stay up with the pace of the others and it was then I realized what a dumb ass I was.
You can see very clearly from the second chart how much stronger just the Pound and the Aussie are. The Swiss made a multi month low taking out it's prior low point, where as the other two did not even get close to taking their corresponding lows points out. Of course the Swiss was struggling to keep up on Monday, it had been the weakest market of all. I could have argued it had the best bar pattern which it did, but comparative strength is way more important than some silly bar pattern I happen to like. Once I realized the mistake I made, I got out of this trade and did a Larry from the Three Stooges move on my head!
The good news is that I got out with a 60 tick profit per contract in a terrible trade. However, I got very lucky. I did exactly the opposite of what I preach and should have been burned by it. I think the real reason I did this was that I was not long enough on the Monday rally only being in the SPY's from the end of last week, and I was trying to catch a little taste somewhere else when the horse had already left the barn. All I can say is don't ever do what I just did, buy the strongest, sell the weak. The weak don't catch up.
I just don't have much new to say other than this, which is why I took the time to humble myself once again and prove I truly tell you what I do, good, bad or otherwise. I do think if by chance, Crude happens to break down tomorrow it could be a short, and I am also watching Natural Gas for a possible long entry along with Cotton. The latter two are going to need a day or two more minimum to setup an entry for me if they do at all. They are on the radar at the moment. Also Hogs could be moving into a sell position in a few days depending on what happens.
I happened to check my blog stats and saw that I had a pretty big Monday readership, so maybe I have picked up some new people along the way. Thanks for reading, and my apologies if my first couple of days with you are relatively light. The markets don't always give great opportunities every day and I just try to point out the ones that are possibly good sized moves. I don't look for wiggles.