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Thursday, March 01, 2012


SCOREBOARD




Alas my sidekick Roberts Gold Show was pulled off the air quickly for being too grossly inaccurate. When you make bold predictions publicly you have to be prepared to eat crow. I have done so on many occasions, but this is not going to be one of them. He had proclaimed Gold would be much higher when I returned and the Gold market absolutely crashed while I was gone. If anyone who read my post Sunday before I left does not think the COT report has any value, I would suggest you stop trading and go find something else to do. For those who know how to read it like I do, it obviously as per the above chart and that of the next one I will show, is of great value in determining where to look. His mistake should be a lesson for us all. He was so blinded by an idealistic view that he ignored the facts. All of us have done this before in our lives, and it is something as traders we have to be constantly aware of. Just because I think Barry is the worst thing that has ever happened to the world, does not mean I just run out and short the stock market.

Readers know that I did not mention the Small Specs and what they were doing until Sunday. Lessons like this with anything would normally carry a huge price as a trading course, I charged nothing. Now that we likely have a top that is in, we need to aggressively short any bounces here. This has happened right at the right time, with the right fundamentals. Setups for a big move do not get any better than this one. Could the market still rise, of course, nothing is 100% guaranteed. However, with the tools I use, I have rarely seen a combination of things better than this hitting all at the same time. For those who are COT detractors, go read somewhere else I have had my fill of comments opposing it, and they will be blocked going forward in the comments portions of the blog. I offer these remarks to help people learn how to use this to make money. I you want to be a dumb ass with your head in the sand, there are plenty of other beautiful beaches to go to.

The single biggest lesson we need to all learn, is that when the wrong people are looking in a certain direction in mass, and the right people are looking the opposite way, we go with the right not the wrong.




Here is the chart of RB where I said even though the Small Specs were ludicrously long, it was not a sell. I will not rehash the dialogue, but you can see I was spot on here as well. I do think Heating Oil is a sell here and I did mention that recently. It has begun to come down. This is the art of using the COT stuff and incorporating it with the price action on a chart. It takes some time to get this correct, but it is obviously worth the effort.

The stock market is starting to look very interesting to me on the short side now. I will have more on that in my post tonight for Friday's action. Along with that will be the Aussie which is also a sell to me here.

Sorry to pick on you Robert but when you make comments like that you have to man up sometimes just like they show in the lite beer commercials. 

Until Tomorrow, Good Trading




5 comments:

Robert said...

Chris,

I'm back and will stand up and take it like a man--the problem was you came back a little to early--lol
today the dollar is down and gold is up over $20--
as far as the COT reports i admit i do not fully understand them as you do..i work full time and just don't have the time to really understand all about them.
Maybe i will pay more attention to your analysis of them.
did you short gold before you left or are you ready to short it now.
gold today is very strong and is only down some $50 from yesterday.
I still believe gold will be back very soon---
just from a fundamental view the FED has never stopped QE-and just yesterday printed up 750 billion for the ECB-
good to have you back---if everyone agreed it sure would be a very boring world or blog

HT said...

Hi CJ. I totally agree with your gold short. I am about ready to go short as well. But am going to wait for atleast a 38.2% retracement of the waterfall decline. I am looking to score big with GLD June put options and would probably buy them when GLD retraces to 168-170. Would love to get your thoughts on this trade. Thanks.

PS: I signed up for LW online seminar just to get started. It was only $10. Lol.

John M said...

It's kind of funny that when so much technical damage has been done to gold, when by every measure it's so obviously broken its trend, that the true believers actually think a normal bounce/retracement the next day 'shows' that gold is coming back. Wow. Does anybody really make money that way?

Chris, once again I've been singing your praises to the small group of part-time traders I know. You can tell me Dick Cheney was the greatest thing to ever happen to the US, I don't care. I'm here for your trading expertise and I learn something practically every time I come here. Thanks again and hope you make a boatload on gold shorts.

Chris Johnston said...

thanks john don't worry I am no cheney fan. I am not a homer for just any republican I just am sure barry is very dangerous. I also think that ass kisser mccain is dangerous. We need someone with a backbone that is not a socialist he could even be a democrat

John M said...

Amen to that. 'Politics' and 'backbone' seem to be non-intersecting concepts these days.