Wednesday, July 18, 2012


Here is the table of the summary of trades in the Blind Man's Bonds since I first announced it here. You can see it does include a current open trade which was a long triggered on last night's open after yesterday's short was exited profitably. I think with this out of sample success, we have something that is viable. I am going to take the suggestion a few of you have had to offer this up now as a subscription service. The cost is going to be $60 per month. For those interested please email me at mktwzrd1@gmail.com. The way this will work is that I will email out the signals every day during the afternoon, so you will be prepared when the night session opens. Many of these trades are entered at the openings. You can always try to "price" them, meaning if you miss the open enter them on limit orders or some other way. In doing so, you may make more on the marginal ones. However, you will also miss some of the good ones since they tend to just roll right from the opening.

There are no promises to be made on these. I have done the best safeguarding I can by what I have done here which I will review now. If you recall I mentioned this system in April and explained how I put it together. It was a combination of the best patterns from my old system I traded exclusively for years, and one year came in 2nd in the Robbins contest, and some newer patterns I have developed. I did find that when the electronic markets started, some of the old patterns became ineffective. However, many of them have now stood the test of 20 years. Once I combined all of this, I launched it here live to see how it would do out of sample. Many things do great in testing, then fall flat on their face live. This has happened to me a few times over the years. In this case the first couple of weeks were crappy, a couple of small wins, one decent sized loss. Typical for this type of approach or any other one for that matter. Then it has gotten back on track. The win percentage is a bit lower than what the testing showed, but the amount of dollars won for just this brief time is pretty good for something like this.

For the sake of accounting, I am just going to have people come in effective at the beginning of the month, so I know when to include people in the emails and when not to. If I find a broad enough interest, I will re-launch my web site and have it all done there, and will accommodate mid month beginning and end enrollments. You will be able to log in and get to a page that has the orders. You will be able to use Pay pal to pay etc.. Initially, please just contact me at my email address if you are interested, and we will get started. You can also call me if you would like to discuss this at 760-734-6927. This is my home phone number so please be aware of the time, I live in San Diego, which is PST and my wife does not wake up until 8 am typically, even though I am awake at 5 am. Please don't call until after 8 am. I am going to set the minimum at 10 meaning I have to have at least 10 people interested to do this. I have no idea what the level of interest is on this in here.

There are no promises on this at all or any representation this will continue to do what it has done since April. I can only promise it will not be the same, it may be better or it may be worse. Systems trading is a different animal, you are completely removing yourself from the equation. You just follow the rules and take the trades as they are spit out. If you try to cherry pick the trades, you may get lucky and miss a loss, but inevitably you will under perform the system as a whole. This will fall on you if you do that. There are not going to be any refunds, it is cheap to begin with. Just for legal purposes I will have a disclaimer in the emails to cover myself so be prepared for that. I will likely be in the most of the trades, but I am not promising that. I have to trade a bit differently than I normally would due to what has happened. As a result risk parameters at any given moment might restrict my ability to take a particular trade. In summary, either call me or email me if you are interested.

As for today, I was looking at potentially shorting the Naz or Russell had we broken yesterday's lows, but that seems unlikely at this point. Due to how far that travel range is, I will do it on a bounce if we get down there. I was also looking at a buy in Sugar and potentially shorting the Euro, but those did not make it through my final filters.

I am supposedly getting a call from the President of Trade Station following up on that situation with them I mentioned the other day. It appears to be an internal glitch having nothing at all to do with security of funds, but in light of current events they are addressing this fully with me. I will summarize the discussion here after I speak with him in case anyone is considering going there. I don't want to misrepresent what may or may not be going on there.

Good Trading


Anonymous said...

Hi Chris,

I am interested to subscribe for this bond system.

I want to take every trade entry and exits as you suggest, with out any of my own interpretation. I just want to follow blindly. I only traded stocks and options and have no experience in trading bonds. Good thing is I don't know much about bonds(Futures) trading that means I can strictly follow the system rules your recommendations with suggested money management rules.

Here are some details I am looking for regarding this service.
1) What is the minimum account size you recommend to follow this system.
Obviously, I want to use this service for one year+ with starting minimum possible capitol.

2) What is the percentage of the account we need to allocate per trade?
Wanted to know some Money Management rules that will be better here to trade for long term.

3) What are the exit rules?
a) Do you provide a predefined stop loss for each trade entry
b) Do you send a exit recommendation
c) OR will you provide exit rules that I need to follow my self.

Frankly, I don't even want to look at any thing other than entering trade entries and exits as you recommend.

Anyway I will send these questions and some more questions through email.

Anonymous said...

I commented last week since I can relate to you being a PFG customer also w/ a pretty substantial sum.
I just wanted to suggest that if you are opening a new futures trading account and want to be SIPC insured, you can go with Think or Swim by opening an account w/ TDAmeritrade. The futures trading is done through the Think or Swim platform which is a pretty decent platform, and after a daytrade the money is swept back into your SIPC insured TDA account. The only vulnerability is open futures trades but most traders don't hold overnight. Another drawback is their commisions are $3.50 per side, all inclusive which is pricey but comes w/ some piece of mind. I hope this helps.

Anonymous said...

I do not have a futures account. Can I use your bond system via TLT or TBT or some other similar instrument? You do a totally different kind of trading than I do, but I am interested in learning what you do and how it works in more detail. This seems like a chance to do that at relatively low cost (potentially at a profit - getting paid to learn would be sweet!). I'm just not sure I can really learn what you do or mimic your entries and exits without a futures account.

Chris Johnston said...

You can use the TLT and TBT but there is one significant problem with doing that. Often big moves happen overnight during the electronic sessions and also during the morning before equites and ETF's open. As a result, you will often be in very late on the trades and could lose money in a winning trade as a result. I used to do exactly this, when I made a futures trade I would try to mimic it in the ETF's and finally gave up after missing too many trades due to them being long gone by the time the stock exchanges open, and also by taking losses on trades the futures won on. You can try this but I do not recommend it.

As to how to trade it, I think you could do it with 10k but I would recommend 15k. There are predefined entry and exits with every trade.

On the Ameritrade situation, the commissions would not be a problem, but if you read the SIPC coverage, it specifically excludes futures, and I always carry positions overnight. Contrary to what you here, very few people make money consistently day trading futures. The people who make money hold trades for a few days at a minimum.

As far as the percentage of the account to allocate, that is an individual choice. I am pretty conservative, so I would only trade this with a 30k per contract balance because I then would only be risking 5% at a time. Most people do not have that much money to start with, so I think you could do it for less but keep in mind if you had 10k and we were hit with 2 losses in a row of the full $1600, you have lost 32% of your account. I can almost guarantee at some point that the system will lose 2 full stop amounts in a row.

This is not for everyone, please consider this carefully and don't put money into anything that you cannot afford to lose. Do not fall in love with the idea here. Call me if you are not sure. I don't want anybody doing this who is not sure, if you are not you won't follow the rules and if you don't follow the rules I can assure you that you will lose money with this.