DISCLAIMER

PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE WHICH APPLIES TO ALL CONTENT IN THIS BLOG AS WELL AS ANY OTHER MATERIAL FROM WE ARE FUTURES TRADERS LLC. READING ANY CONTENT BELOW CONSTITUTES AN AGREEMENT BY ALL READERS THAT THEY HAVE READ AND AGREE TO ALL THAT IS SET FORTH IN THE DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE.


Monday, July 02, 2012

WINDOW DRESSING




After last week I finally got my wish here, a rally up into my sell zone. Now that we are here, what next? At this point I am fairly sure that last Friday was the Fed buying futures to convince us the Supreme Court ruling was a good thing for all of us. They started Thursday after we all saw the real reaction to the news, a huge sell off. Those late day saves more often than not are the Fed/PPT. Once they get them going then we get the short squeeze effect, and we are off to the races. We don't know yet if this is the beginning of something big or not, it could be. For now, price is back into my zone, so I am looking for sells on a shorter term basis.

As I stated Friday, we now live in an age where the government is not going to let the short side really get going in the stock indexes. The only way it will is if some big news they can't spin with buy programs, just gets away from them. In those instances, they seem to do their buying selectively to keep an orderly decline going, and not allow waterfalls. Any shorts I do will have very short leashes on them at the very least until after the election. If Barry gets another 4, they may back off some since he will already be in. He will then have another 4 to tell us all to f off. The kid is the greatest smack talker for a President of all time, there is nobody else in the conversation.

The short term Bond System did generate a buy on the open last night, to be exited first profitable open. This system has done very well overall, more than good enough to offer up as a service. However, that 18 out of 20 loss streak LW's service had at one point has me rattled about offering anything to people. I care too much about others, and you have to completely detach yourself from the idea that others are taking losses at your expense, while you are getting paid by them at the same time.  Maybe what I could do is some type of incentive, the trades are really cheap then to get access for the next month, you have to pay a portion to me of the profits you made from the signals that past month? This way I would not make much unless everyone was doing well? It would require a lot of record keeping on my part as to who joined when, so I am not sure I want to go through all of that.




You can see the only recent loss, with a bunch of wins surrounding it. Of the readers that are here, who has interest in this as a service, anyone? I know I am going back and forth on this so my apologies on that. I am trying to hard to make sure anyone who used it does well, and there is just no way of doing that unfortunately. It has traded profitably since I debuted it here, and that is all I really wanted to accomplish.

I sat in on a webinar with a guy touting an emini system to trade, he was charging $1995 for it. There were 7 different strategies within it. He has a very good reputation, so I wanted to see what was up. About a week later they released one of the 7 strategies for free, and over the weekend I checked it out. The strategy lost money over the period I tested it, of course! It was just a pullback strategy with some rules, on 5 minute charts. The problem with these, and mine I have tried to create have the same problem, is that they only work when a big trend move happens. When you get back and forth motion, you just get stopped out right and left. I did like his setup, it made sense to me, but in the end I knew what the outcome was going to be. I last stopped after it lost 6 in a row, as my worker who speaks poor English would say "Noo Gooo."

Ironically, I think Bonds are setup for a sell tomorrow if they close higher today, and I will be looking to sell a break if that happens. The system trade would be exited on the open anyway, so there would not be a conflict.

Silver in particular, and Gold to a lessor degree, seem to be possibly setting up sells here. Silver really lagged the PPT move Friday, more than almost any market. That is more confirmation of how weak that market is on a relative basis. Unfortunately, when we get one day moves like that it messes up charts for a few days as far as new entries are concerned. The Yen could also be a sell tomorrow if we close higher today.

POOF!


6 comments:

Michael Tredr said...

that ISM report this morning really threw a wrench into things.

I think it's really commendable how careful you are rolling your bond system out to readers like myself. hope trading is going well today.

HT said...

Great article CJ. What are the red and green lines on the ES chart? Seems like a moving average band of some sort but couldn't figure out what. Thanks!

Vikas said...

I am definitely interested in that service Chris.

Chris Johnston said...

HT those bands are somewhat of a secret, something I developed that is one of my best things so I keep it to myself, sorry. They seem to do a good job of defining trends when daylight appears, for now they are saying sell rallies still.

Vikas, I am debating on the service still, thanks for the comment.

Vikas said...

Chris, wondering what you think of the corn action here, everyone's bullish, toppy?

Chris Johnston said...

everything I watch is bullish for corn at the moment