TIME TO GO OUT ON A LIMB

7.7%

Since the benchmark for the narrative is 7.8% and so much is at stake, I predict the above will be what they report tomorrow. I think the report tomorrow was determined many months ago no matter what the facts were the report will show this number or lower. After all how can you claim what you are doing is working if you don't have the numbers to back it up?

I expect a mild reaction in the market unless they have the nerve to go way over board and report 7.5% or less. That would take incredible nerve since the ADP stuff came out today and showed a downward revision of last months data. However, I have seen one thing that has been consistent, they have done what ever they felt like doing regardless of the facts or what the American public has wanted for almost 4 years now. Why stop now with the finish line so close in sight?

I have been talking about a rally in the stock indexes based on a signal in the Vix and said the trigger was first a close below the open in the Vix itself and then a penetration of a prior day's high. We have gotten both of those and the market has risen nicely. I did also say that I was not looking for a big bounce, so that means that for that portion to be correct we need to have a mild reaction to the fake number that is going to be released tomorrow. I do not expect anything big on the upside on Friday no matter how the report is released.

You can see where I have it marked on the chart at the point where the first high was taken out, which would be the long entry on this trade by the Vix rules that I use. I did say I did not think this was a great trade because my second filter did not approve it. This made it about a 60% probability to be a winner. I guess we will see tomorrow what happens.

I have to keep it brief tonight so I think we will see a day with some upside tomorrow or if down a "contained" move. I guess I am the village idiot if they present a number over 7.8% that would really be an October surprise.