Thursday, January 03, 2013


I pointed out that the Euro was setup for a decline recently and here is the short entry I have done that was also in the Swing Service. At this point we don't know if this is the beginning of something bigger or just a quick burst. I never know that. It is one thing to be some clown who writes about the ultimate death of the Euro who later says I told you so and another to have a blog, state the setup, then do a trade in concert with it in a trading service.

This is not a bragging attempt, we got stopped out of a few trades today for about a net break even collectively. This is why I explained that the attempt in the Swing Service is to try and catch larger moves and the accuracy is not nearly what the Bond signals deliver. One of the things people have to get comfortable with in trading is that it is the bottom line that matters. We have the Bond System to brag about accuracy at cocktail parties and get chicks. Trying to trap larger moves can be very frustrating at times. We just had a great looking gold trade that had a big open profit that got stopped out for a $350 gain only today when that market collapsed. That was frustrating, I had a lot of open profits that poofed! there today.

This does not bother me even in the least bit because I am trying to catch larger moves. We are in an environment now with what the government is doing, or in this case not doing ( not fixing ). This should create huge price swings for us to trade. I for one hope they just bring the whole thing down which is what they seem intent on doing. I think Gold is now in a bear market, so I guess I was pressing a trade that was too much against the big trend there. I am far from perfect.

One interesting thing that is happening is the decoupling of markets from the ES. It would have been unthinkable that there could have been a day like this in the Euro when the ES did not break down. I have mentioned that the FED games are going to eventually wear off and we are seeing that now. They have been able to drive many things up just by manipulating the ES Contract for 3 years, yet now it does not seem to be working all of the sudden. What a great irony it would be if they had to go public and complain that buying the ES failed to stop a melt down! I just want the fundamentals to rule the day regardless of that meaning up or down. All of these games by central banks are really getting tired.

We get NFP tomorrow which has become a laughing stock of a report that most everyone knows is phony and being used to manipulate politics only. At some point if the markets tune out to that I wonder what will be the next move by big brother. Natural market forces always prevail in the end and they will in the stock market as well.

Our Bond System has been on a tear the last week or so, exactly what I speculated was likely to happen after the losing period in December. We now have made a new equity high in it since it's release date, nice move those of you made who left! You sold the low. Here is a chart that shows the last few trades.

These last two trades have just been dynamite. You don't ever know which trades will be good and which won't. Most would not have thought shorting Thursday's open after the big down day where we took profits on the open on a prior short, would be a great trade yet, it was a huge winning trade of almost $1,300. I guess I should not be rubbing it in but there is a point to be made here.

I stated for 3 months we would have losing periods yet I think nobody believed it because of how many winning trades kept being generated. Then a few happen just like I said they would and people bail out and do so right when the system goes on a tear to have 3 great wins in a row easily making a new equity high. This is trading folks no matter the style. If you are someone who has a habit of making this mistake you really need to go find something else to do, trading is not for you. That is the honest truth. 

This business is not easy that is why so many people fail. If you are prone to just doing what everyone else does you will not succeed in this business. It is better to learn this early on and go find something else to do and be productive, than it is to waste years trying to do something you will never be able to master.

I hope this does not come across as too harsh, but what you get from me is honesty.

I did mention the last couple of days that I felt that are several markets setup to decline right now and today has not changed my mind.

Have a great weekend


PD Quig said...

I can't imagine what it would be like to share a trading system with the public. I gave an automated system that I developed to two friends and aftermath was not good. They complained about the entries, they complained about the exits, they asked for enhancements, they complained when I passed on trades because of another filter that I applied (that they knew about--but that was not built into the code). In short, the whole experience stunk.

I feel like you are overly sensitive about people dropping out of the bond system after December. You make good points about sticking with systems through the inevitable downturns that are worth repetition. I was one of the people who did so, but as my note to you indicated, it was because I discovered that I was not able to trade somebody else's black box system. Without understanding the rationale--why the system gives an edge--following a system is just too much like working for somebody else: you might make good money but you're never going to feel in control of your destiny and are often going to question the decisions made when you have no idea why. For anybody who has developed their own systems, blind faith in somebody else's approach is just hard to muster. I tried it and couldn't do it. I kept improving your entries based on my methods and taking profits at logical points...in short...laying my own systemic approach atop your system's trade triggers. Does that make sense? I don't know why others bailed, but that was my reason. Maybe they're incapable of sticking with any system...maybe they just need somebody else to manage their money....maybe...

Your clear record establishes that you're a very talented trader. Put the shoe on the other foot: would you be able to trade somebody else's systems if you couldn't figure out how they worked? Don't take it personally.

Chris Johnston said...

You are probably right about the sensitivity I was just trying to make a point that most people drop out at the worst possible times in things like this from me or anyone else. I just hated to see those people miss those wonderful trades it indicated but I am over it and won't be discussing this aspect of this any more in here.

Point Well Taken

Angel Tee 85 said...

Hi, Chris.

Is this blog owner one of your followers / subscribers?

I saw a identical Bond trade.

Chris Johnston said...

the grammar in that blog is so bad the owner of it should be embarrassed it is really tacky. I have no idea if they are stealing from me or not.

This person needs to take an english correspondence course for starters.