EURO DECLINE BEGINS?
I pointed out that the Euro was setup for a decline recently and here is the short entry I have done that was also in the Swing Service. At this point we don't know if this is the beginning of something bigger or just a quick burst. I never know that. It is one thing to be some clown who writes about the ultimate death of the Euro who later says I told you so and another to have a blog, state the setup, then do a trade in concert with it in a trading service.
This is not a bragging attempt, we got stopped out of a few trades today for about a net break even collectively. This is why I explained that the attempt in the Swing Service is to try and catch larger moves and the accuracy is not nearly what the Bond signals deliver. One of the things people have to get comfortable with in trading is that it is the bottom line that matters. We have the Bond System to brag about accuracy at cocktail parties and get chicks. Trying to trap larger moves can be very frustrating at times. We just had a great looking gold trade that had a big open profit that got stopped out for a $350 gain only today when that market collapsed. That was frustrating, I had a lot of open profits that poofed! there today.
This does not bother me even in the least bit because I am trying to catch larger moves. We are in an environment now with what the government is doing, or in this case not doing ( not fixing ). This should create huge price swings for us to trade. I for one hope they just bring the whole thing down which is what they seem intent on doing. I think Gold is now in a bear market, so I guess I was pressing a trade that was too much against the big trend there. I am far from perfect.
One interesting thing that is happening is the decoupling of markets from the ES. It would have been unthinkable that there could have been a day like this in the Euro when the ES did not break down. I have mentioned that the FED games are going to eventually wear off and we are seeing that now. They have been able to drive many things up just by manipulating the ES Contract for 3 years, yet now it does not seem to be working all of the sudden. What a great irony it would be if they had to go public and complain that buying the ES failed to stop a melt down! I just want the fundamentals to rule the day regardless of that meaning up or down. All of these games by central banks are really getting tired.
We get NFP tomorrow which has become a laughing stock of a report that most everyone knows is phony and being used to manipulate politics only. At some point if the markets tune out to that I wonder what will be the next move by big brother. Natural market forces always prevail in the end and they will in the stock market as well.
Our Bond System has been on a tear the last week or so, exactly what I speculated was likely to happen after the losing period in December. We now have made a new equity high in it since it's release date, nice move those of you made who left! You sold the low. Here is a chart that shows the last few trades.
These last two trades have just been dynamite. You don't ever know which trades will be good and which won't. Most would not have thought shorting Thursday's open after the big down day where we took profits on the open on a prior short, would be a great trade yet, it was a huge winning trade of almost $1,300. I guess I should not be rubbing it in but there is a point to be made here.
I stated for 3 months we would have losing periods yet I think nobody believed it because of how many winning trades kept being generated. Then a few happen just like I said they would and people bail out and do so right when the system goes on a tear to have 3 great wins in a row easily making a new equity high. This is trading folks no matter the style. If you are someone who has a habit of making this mistake you really need to go find something else to do, trading is not for you. That is the honest truth.
This business is not easy that is why so many people fail. If you are prone to just doing what everyone else does you will not succeed in this business. It is better to learn this early on and go find something else to do and be productive, than it is to waste years trying to do something you will never be able to master.
I hope this does not come across as too harsh, but what you get from me is honesty.
I did mention the last couple of days that I felt that are several markets setup to decline right now and today has not changed my mind.
Have a great weekend