Bull Market Rages On
I know I can hear the boos and browsers moving on to the next site that will tell them a crash is imminent. I trade I can't afford to come out every day and publish all these negative stories while a bull market rages on, it won't pay my bills. I can't be wrong for months at a time then come out and tell everyone I got it right once the inevitable decline takes place.
This does not mean I am super bullish but it does mean I am smart enough to acknowledge what should be so plain to see, this is a bull market. It is not a runaway type of situation but it is typical of a bull market, the price just crawls along in spite of all the negative stuff being thrown out explaining why every up day is bogus for some reason. I don't care about all those opinions, unless I can send my bills to those people that have them so they can them for me if they are wrong and I follow their guidance.
We are at the seasonal period of time right here where the average occurrence has been a decline so I suppose there is something for the end of the world guys to hang onto. I have been mentioning that I do think there is a big decline out there somewhere and that has not changed, but I don't see it happening right at the moment. I want to see more weakness in the Bond market before getting too excited about a huge move down. The Fed is having it's way and fighting it is just foolish. I do still have my mechanical system short on and it is upside down about 5 points right now, I have no idea whether the trade will wind up working or not. If I had to guess I would say no but you never know. When trading system signals I do not let my opinion get involved.
Some of the other markets that were setup as sells that were leading me to be more bearish than I should have been, have rallied enough to take away some of the sell setups. As a result overall I am somewhat neutral. The Nasdaq is still lagging the ES by a large amount which is bothersome but as I have said before the Fed seems to have focused on the ES exclusively and have let other markets go. I don't know why they have taken this tact, only they know for sure.
Here is the chart of the SMH and you can see it is showing divergence still when compared to the ES. For the bulls it would be nice to see the SMH take out it's recent highs. This is diverging some but even with that the price action in the ES has not yet shown a break of anything significant. Once it breaks some type of near term support, it will then be time to look at some of these other things. I don't try to pick exact highs or low that is a losers game and I don't like losing.
Good trading this week