DISCLAIMER

PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE WHICH APPLIES TO ALL CONTENT IN THIS BLOG AS WELL AS ANY OTHER MATERIAL FROM WE ARE FUTURES TRADERS LLC. READING ANY CONTENT BELOW CONSTITUTES AN AGREEMENT BY ALL READERS THAT THEY HAVE READ AND AGREE TO ALL THAT IS SET FORTH IN THE DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE.


Sunday, January 20, 2013

Bull Market Rages On



I know I can hear the boos and browsers moving on to the next site that will tell them a crash is imminent. I trade I can't afford to come out every day and publish all these negative stories while a bull market rages on, it won't pay my bills. I can't be wrong for months at a time then come out and tell everyone I got it right once the inevitable decline takes place.

This does not mean I am super bullish but it does mean I am smart enough to acknowledge what should be so plain to see, this is a bull market. It is not a runaway type of situation but it is typical of a bull market, the price just crawls along in spite of all the negative stuff being thrown out explaining why every up day is bogus for some reason. I don't care about all those opinions, unless I can send my bills to those people that have them so they can them for me if they are wrong and I follow their guidance.

We are at the seasonal period of time right here where the average occurrence has been a decline so I suppose there is something for the end of the world guys to hang onto. I have been mentioning that I do think there is a big decline out there somewhere and that has not changed, but I don't see it happening right at the moment. I want to see more weakness in the Bond market before getting too excited about a huge move down. The Fed is having it's way and fighting it is just foolish. I do still have my mechanical system short on and it is upside down about 5 points right now, I have no idea whether the trade will wind up working or not. If I had to guess I would say no but you never know. When trading system signals I do not let my opinion get involved.

Some of the other markets that were setup as sells that were leading me to be more bearish than I should have been, have rallied enough to take away some of the sell setups. As a result overall I am somewhat neutral. The Nasdaq is still lagging the ES by a large amount which is bothersome but as I have said before the Fed seems to have focused on the ES exclusively and have let other markets go. I don't know why they have taken this tact, only they know for sure.

Here is the chart of the SMH and you can see it is showing divergence still when compared to the ES. For the bulls it would be nice to see the SMH take out it's recent highs. This is diverging some but even with that the price action in the ES has not yet shown a break of anything significant. Once it breaks some type of near term support, it will then be time to look at some of these other things. I don't try to pick exact highs or low that is a losers game and I don't like losing.



Good trading this week


5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Chris. Happened to see your interview on YouTube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqqoMz4gL5Q

Wish you all the best in this year World Cup Trading.

Greetings from M'sia

Vikas said...

Thanks for sharing that video :-)

Anonymous said...

Do you have any comment for the newly proposed financial transaction tax in Europe?

TraderJ

Chris Johnston said...

Trader J I will have to take a look at that I was not aware of it but you all have to realize with the US now becoming a socialist country, taxes are going way up from where they are now everywhere. They have kicked around ideas like that here in Congress and I would expect if the House were to become Democratic in the next election, that they will try to stop trading either via a tax or some other means. Email me something on this if you can find it so it is easier to find, I am really busy with my father at the moment as per my last post.

The Video is out there on You Tube for anyone who wants to watch it. It was made during my trophy acceptance in Chicago last year. I did not link it through the blog because if makes me look so bad, I look 70 years old in that thing and even with pride set aside, I don't look like that in person. I usually look really good in pictures and video so I don't know what happened on that but it is embarrassing. There was so much light in my face I was almost blinded trying to look at the person who I was conversing with. I think the content is good so just close your eyes and listen!

Anonymous said...

Frankly speaking, you look like Sylvester Stallone in the video.

BJ