CRUDE OIL DELIVERS
For those Newsletter readers you can see the ADX pattern we have written about on this chart, some of you probably caught this better than we did. We actually shorted the false break then reversed to long once the trade failed. How did we know to do this?
You never "know" to do anything in this business and one of the hardest things to do is to immediately reverse after you have taken a loss like we did here. This is especially true in the trading services where we have to tell folks in advance to do it. My logic here was that we had formed a tight congestion pattern and I thought the breakout would have some travel room to it. We just played it both ways, reversing when the first breakout failed. There are some inner workings to this as to why I thought this congestion would result in a breakout that are a bit more complex. However, the net net is just we were trying to trap the market and we were successful.
Often when there is a really strong short term burst like this for a few days markets pause. Since this trade got us back to a good spot I decided to exit after the burst. We were in a hole in the Swing service this month until this trade and now we are in a much better spot. That equity position would not in and of itself been a reason to exit had the short term expansion pattern not been there. You have to trade the trades for their individual merit.
This trade leads me to something I was going to wait for months end to discuss but have decided to do so today. We have made a few tweaks to the Swing trades and this Crude long was the first one that was done with the tweaks. As I have written many times in the past, I don't jump around from technique to technique trying to always be perfect. I have used the same basic trading tools for a long time with a few minor changes. I recently discovered a better way of using the same tools to stay in trades longer. We are going to be employing it now going forward. Ironically, the first trade in this sequence the short, would not have been a trade with this minor change, but the long was. That is the main reason we stated in the orders to reverse. Since the variation will catch larger moves we felt it was prudent to reverse the short trade if it failed.
At times in the trading services we have had some good trades that have been stopped out and then gone on to make pretty good moves in the direction we were looking to begin with. Some of this has been due to some gamesmanship by someone as I have discussed, but it is also due to the stops being too close which is on me. I have been trying to figure out how to best handle this situation which is what led me to this little change which will make a major difference. Be prepared we are going to sit in some trades for a long time now compared to what we have been doing. We will do a quick sharp volatility expansion exit like we did here at times, but often we don't get these so we will sit in trades for a month or more occasionally.
I have to thank everyone because running this service is what led me to this conclusion, had I not been doing that I may not have made this discovery. It was right in front of me for quite some time and I had been considering it, but making the service run the best way I could make it run is what led me to this. Doing it the way we have had made us money, but we have missed some larger moves that I should have caught and we are going to go get some of those now.
I twitted this morning that I think there are some short term things in the stock market that are bearish. Once again the ADX pattern is there, so something to begin to watch now for sells.
It looks like it is official now after going through another computer, I am just going to notebooks now and connecting them to my big monitor for viewing. I have so many issues with tower computers on my ranch and I have worn out the path the the Geek Squad just to find out my mother board is trashed and I am just done. My wife complains to me all the time about our computer issues which gets in the way of her facebook! You married guys get this one I am sure. She did not want her own notebook because she likes the big screen, so I gave her both.
You may have seen the PFG story that Chumpenstein went for the statutory max on the fees because he has done such a good job getting us 30% of our money back. What an asshole. I guess he just did what any other attorney would do, saw a chance to make millions off innocent victims. I would love just once, one time, to be able to hit one of these guys with a jump spinning back kick, JUST ONCE! Alas it will never happen. I still think Dana White should have a UFC version of Perps vs Victims.