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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

CYPRUS WRAP UP






Before I get to the above chart let's wrap up the discussion on the Cyprus situation. I have been surprised by some of the reactions I have gotten on this. I think some people are trying to make this political and I don't think it is for one minute. I am going to draw a parallel to something that in my mind is similar even if it is not readily apparent on the surface. GM.

GM is a prime example of a problem that has been made worse. It is hailed as a success yet they owe the tax payers around $35 Billion which will never be paid back. The real dark secret is that they have an unfunded pension obligation of $100 Billion, you read that right. It is possible that has changed some but those were the numbers a few months back and if they have changed it is on the negative side.

The reason I see them the same is that they are both situations that are big unsolved problems that seemingly are not a concern to most people. I really don't think either should be political. They are both outgrowths of economic models that don't work. They can't be made to work, and won't ever work. You can choose to penalize people to buy you time to try and make something that by definition can't ever work. The question is what is the point? Both are economic models that are going to implode again.

I am pretty sure if we ever reached a point in the US where people that were poor had their $2000 bank account balance penalized $140 there would be a violent revolt. Never say never. For now it appears they voted down the tax so who knows what is next, another bailout of a failed business with borrowed money that can't be repaid. Sounds like an even par round in this day and age.

I have had a preponderance of computer problems over the last several days. My favorite has been my screen just turning off on it's own. I had to do a system restore which still failed to solve the problem so then a new video card etc.. I was trying to make the Swing signals while my screen was literally showing the chart for a second then disappearing. Then reboot see it for 3 seconds POOF! Etc.. I had not done the daily download on my backup laptops and the time the orders needed to be placed was approaching. I apologize for having all the revisions but now you know why and also why I ultimately cancelled all of them for tomorrow. I have a commitment tomorrow so the orders won't be out until about 3 hours after the normal time, my apologies, especially for those who live in other countries with big time zone differences.

The above chart was one of the trades I had put in the Swing Service that was cancelled. The logic behind this should be familiar to Newsletter readers as to why this is labeled a buy zone even though it won't seem to make sense to some others. It was a buy on a weekly setup and some of my short term indicators were on the verge of turning up, which is why I had a buy order in for this market. Once I finally got my screen to show the actual chart for more than 3 seconds I noticed one of my rules was not in place so the trade was actually a no go. That does not mean anything about my opinion as to whether or not I think this will rally Wednesday or not. What it means is that it does not follow my rules for entry.

I have been off my game a bit this month and if there is one thing I hope some people have learned is that I don't press my hands when I am not on my game. I am in no hurry to trade and don't force things. If I have a bad stretch I am not in a hurry to "get it back" etc.. Those have been famous last words of too many people. PFG has taken away my cushion and that is a good thing. It forces me not to piss money away pushing a marginal trade.

If you find yourself dying to get some money back after a bad trade, resist that urge. The markets will be here tomorrow as long as Douchefett does not get his way.

Good Trading

2 comments:

Vikas said...

Yeah, its clearly "news" as long as it happens to someone else, if it happens to us, its a disaster! Its ridiculous that everyone wants to point out the mobster money, but no one realizes half of the deposits were from normal savers, and that this sets a precedent all across Europe.

John M said...

'The markets will be here tomorrow as long as Douchefett does not get his way.'

Chris, you're pretty funny!

Sorry for misunderstanding you on Cyprus, I think that was the problem there. Meanwhile, somebody in Europe made soothing noises overnight, looks like. Markets all happy.