STOCK MARKET BREAK OUT OR ROLLOVER?
We have bounced enough now where we have taken me out of my ideal setup for a sell in the Bernanke's. All we are is one more bad economic report away from a new high. How ironic is it that we need bad reports for stock rallies? If you keep in mind who is doing the buying it makes sense and we have to keep that in mind at all times. It does make trading the stock indexes very difficult, it is essentially a completely bogus market at it's core now. That flash down and reverse the other day on that twitter skit was really interesting. I think the complete lack of volume tells us that many people are just elsewhere where the markets are still somewhat free of direct manipulation. If you insist on being a 5 min chart ES trader best wishes, that is just impossible in this day and age.
What I am looking for now is for us to move sideways for a few days to see what happens. We could just take off again, the short term things I use are now mixed. I do have the one component above that is bearish still showing a potential roll over in the price momentum, yet basis the ES we are almost back to the highs. My other two things I use have both turned up too much for a short right at the moment. There is nothing for me to do here right now. I did get popped on my B of A short for $400 on 1,000 shares. The problem like I have mentioned so many times, is trading individual stocks is almost pointless, they all just match the Bernanke's and are less liquid. When you get an ES rally like this most of them just go up right with it.
There is talk now of this great GOLD SHORTAGE and runs on the mints etc.. Has anyone questioned this at all based on the fact that the futures markets have not moved? Who do you think these buyers are, Small spec types or Commercial insider types? This is akin to a huge buying binge by small speculators in my view. I suspect this is a pump and dump scheme hoping to ignite a futures rally so those who know now they are stuck can get out a little better. The whole thing just seems fishy to me, but I could care less I trade on technical things not this kind of stuff. My general feeling is this it the dumb money buying not the smart but who knows.
I am hoping the new web site is going to be up any day now so I am dual posting in it and the separate blog. One day this week you are going to check in to the site and viola it will be the new one. This has taken so so long I am going to get it launched and make it what I want it to be over time. It was supposed to take 6 weeks and it is now more than 4 months. I do not have everything exactly as I want it there since time is short for me at the moment. The pay for services section is not setup correctly yet and it is something I have to figure out and will try to do that ASAP. I do have some videos loaded which I will build upon over time. The daily signals are still going to have to go through Aweber like they are now until I can test the lists I have imported to make sure they are all correct. Once I have done that the signals will be in the web site each day so you will be able to just log in and get them. I suspect it will be a month before we get to that point, but will try to get it done faster.
At this point people have seen the changes in the Swing signals and how long we are staying in the trades. We have been in one for 14 days now and another for 7. The markets have been somewhat choppy and that is typical after you get sharp moves in things. There is a natural cycle that takes us from smooth to choppy and back which is frustrating. I try not to press too many bets and stay patient when I think the circumstances are not as favorable for runs. I do not always get it right
This would have to fall into the who gives a ... category. There is no news of any kind I know of other than what appears to be all sorts of people selling their claims to the bad debt firms. At this point it is probably wise to do that because there is no time table for any other distributions, a corrupt judge who is taking a long leave of absence, and a general who cares attitude about things. It does not appear to me any more money will come back to any of us this year. Waiting an additional year just to get maybe another 10% beyond what you could sell for now is probably not that smart, but it is what I am doing. I think this is what happens in most of these cases, you get an initial wave, the reporters go nuts, then eventually they move on to the next Brokerage firm Corleone caper. We have had 5 stories now since PFG of shenanigans with Seg money, FIVE! Some of them actually occurred at the same time PFG did, but the people were not caught until later, then fined. This should confirm what I have been telling all of you, this is going in everywhere and it is a matter of time before another one crashes. If you have not done so split your money up to protect yourself. Also look at the lag time involved in them being caught. Remember if they go down at any point even if it is a day after they do something, your money could be completely gone or tied up in court for years. Catching them a little faster means nothing for getting your money back. Once it poofs the process starts.
If you think Uncle Sam is looking out for you prepare to be disappointed.
Stay patient maybe the beginning of May with it's seasonal bias to the down side will bring us some action.