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Thursday, May 18, 2006

Here is the update for today on the OOPS, what happens when things go wrong discussion from the other day.

I know I have had a few phone conversations regarding that post with a few viewers of this.

The main points to get out of all of this are as follows.
First, as you can see on the updated chart, that short position has been switched to a long position. This shows that it is important to be on the alert to changing market conditions. I had spoken of a few bullish forces that were surfacing. It is too soon to be sure, but they may be exerting themselves here.

Second, even though my opinion of the short position I took the other day, that became a small loss, was that it was not a good entry, do not trade on your opinion. I don't know what it is about our psyche, but we always remember when the mistakes we make, actually create good outcomes.

In trading this is a dangerous behavior pattern. The proper action here was to take the short trade I took, and reverse it to a long position if the trading system said to do so based on changing market conditions. Any other approach, is just incorrect.

The proper approach here resulted in a small loss of 9/32's on the original trade, with the new long trade result pending. Considering that the stop loss on this system is 48/32's, this is a loss we can live with.

YTD this system is now 14/17, with a greater than $3000/contract gain. Remember, taking losses at times is part of this business. If you are not prepared for that, you should not be trading.

This is why we have systems, to get us past our emotional baggage in decision making.

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