Fighting the Trend
It is a natural human tendency to try and sell high and buy low and in general that is what we want to do as traders. However, we must balance that with not stepping in front of trends.
I have been run over enough times fighting trends in my life to itleast understand the danger in doing so. Here we have the bonds is a big uptrend, almost in breakaway mode at this point. I was out with a friend on Saturday who had no idea rates were going down because he has been listening to the media talk about higher rates.
There are a couple of reasons including the heavy short position the commercials have, to look at possibly shorting this market. However, this is a very strong uptrend, so the conditions are really going to have to be ideal for me to do it. I did find a good short pattern for today that had been great except when it occurred after 4 consecutive up closes which is what he had going in. As a result, the trade got nixed. Maybe something will set up for tomorrow, but this trend is very strong.