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Wednesday, August 01, 2007

NOW WHAT?

Here we are in the midst of a pretty sharp decline in stock prices. Alot of gloom and doom is out there. I have to admit that the price action does in fact look like a top.. However..... my timing model is not telling me that yet. The commercials are still heavily long, which is significant. If the real insiders are not selling this decline, why should I?



It does need to be stated that I do have a long term upward bias for stocks, and there is a reason for this. No matter how I research timing models over mid term time horizons, all the short signals are very inconsistent. The reason for that is obvious, the long term huge stock uptrend that exists.



As a result, I look more to dodge big declines and buy dips, than I do to short big rallies. That is a suckers game, and I have learned that lesson the hard way over the years. What I have displayed here is what my guess is as to what will happen in the near term. If my system is to generate an exit, it would most likely be with a rally up from here that probably fails to make new highs. If the commercials were to move over to the short side during such an attempt, the system will most likely give the exit signal. Most of the exits ( sell signals ) with my system, have occurred that way in the past, so that is why that is what I expect now. I was on the record as many know that a sharp decline should occur this year beginning in about the beginning of August, I was off by one week unfortunately. I do wish I was out of my trade at this point just off the cuff, but I always follow my systems, unless I find something that is so important that it cannot be ignored. I have not found anything like that at this point.



Just for the record, that buy trade in the last post was stopped out for a loss. I did it with small size due to the volatility expansion. I always trade small when that type of thing happens, so it was a 1% loss, who cares about that.

2 comments:

Thomas Carolan said...

Thanks Chris, love the blog and all your heedful insights. Your blog is as interesting to me as Pigginton. The strategy of trading and the 'Magic Potion' formula is incredibly intriguing. Cheers,

Chris Johnston said...

Thanks for the nice words Tom. I have such a terrible time with internet connections on my ranch nowadays, that it is physically impossible to post something every day. It literally can take 2 hours to do it. I have been attempting to post something tonight, and my trading program that I copy the charts from is freezing up due to the slow connection speed about every 2 minutes. Hopefully, I can get something out Tuesday. With the Fed commenting, it should be a very interesting day.