It is impossible not to concede that the trend has now turned down. Oddly, the commercials are still heavily long, if we go into a full crash, it would be the first time in history that it has happened when the commercials were positioned like they are. Below, I have a custom indicator based on the VIX index. As you can see, whenever it has hit 100, a major low has been made.
Although this chart only goes back to 2006, all the prior major lows have had this reading. It is at 100 now. As a result, the likelihood of at the very least a good bounce is very high right here. I am waiting for that bounce to then see how things look. If they still look the same with the other things, I will stay long, if they do not, I will sell all my stocks on the bounce. The VIX measures fear, which is why it has historically been a good predictor of lows. The fear is clearly everywhere right now, and rightfully so. It is possible that we have an unprecedented economic event that will spill over into everything.
I do not get involved in investing based on guesses about such things. The above types of things are how I make my decisions. This tells me not to short the market here or sell out here, so I will not. Could we just continue to waterfall, absolutely. Do I think we will, no and the above is why.