Here is a chart of the Naz, I have left prices out due to having to block that part of the window so as not the reveal exactly what this oscillator is. It is what it is, this is free and I am not in the practice of giving up my secrets. The point is that this oscillator is now warning of a top at hand finally.
Often oscillators give many false top signals in trend moves up like this, and this one is no different. However, if we couple that with the seasonal tendency for a top here and the commercials activity leaning to the short side, this has to be taken into account. One of my mentors has called for a 5/29 top date, I have no idea if that will be correct or not, but if you read my prior posts I had a may and june date as possible places for a cycle top. So now that we are in that zone of time and these other items are lining up, I do think it is time to start taking sell signals in the indexes.
We are experiencing tremendous rallies across the board in almost every market in the futures, some of which are on the border of breaking weekly down trends. However, there are seasonal tendencies for peaks in alot of them in the next month so it is time to be on the lookout for a resumption of some of these longer term down trends.