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Wednesday, May 06, 2009

The Market I love to Hate, GOLD

I hate it of course because of the collective fraud going on to rope suckers into moving their money into it due to the impending end of the United States and the dollar.

Notice how well this market has followed the seasonal pattern recently, rallied right on schedule from the low, and peaked similarly on schedule. This pattern calls for a slow drift down for a few more months. Rarely will the seasonal be this spot on do we cannot rely on it solely for trading decisions, but it can give us a bias of what to look for at certain times and that is how I use them.

Most of my short term indicators are still indicating a down trend so I am looking to short rallies, although I did buy it the day after the recent low with a short term technique I use for counter trend trading, but have exited that trade at this point. In the metals, Copper is by far the strongest up trend now, so longs should be done there not in Gold. You always want to buy the strong and sell the weak in a complex. Too many people have this notion of the weak will catch up, this does not happen.

As a result bearish folks should short gold and bullish should buy copper.

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